FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Sam
LOCATED
1095 MI ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
WINDS
120 MPH
PRESSURE
960 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 10 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 25 2021
Small but dangerous Sam now a major hurricane.
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Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

SURF: Swells generated by Sam are forecast to reach the Lesser Antilles early next week. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

SURF: Swells generated by Sam are forecast to reach the Lesser Antilles early next week. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 47.6 West. Sam is moving toward the west northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower motion to the west northwest is expected over the weekend, followed by a turn to the northwest on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sam is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane by Sunday. Some fluctuations in the hurricane's intensity are possible early next week. Sam is a small hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 47.6 West. Sam is moving toward the west northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower motion to the west northwest is expected over the weekend, followed by a turn to the northwest on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sam is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane by Sunday. Some fluctuations in the hurricane's intensity are possible early next week. Sam is a small hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

After a brief hiccup, Sam has resumed rapid strengthening and now shows a 12-15 n mi wide well-defined eye embedded in a central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -70C. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 115 kt at 18Z, and objective intensity estimates have also been near 115 kt. Since the organization has increased some since 18Z, the initial intensity is increased to 120 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to Sam to provide a better estimate of the intensity. The hurricane has good cirrus outflow in all quadrants. However, a large arc cloud to the northwest of the central core suggests dry air is present in that area.

The initial motion is still west-northwestward or 290/9. There are again no changes to the forecast track reasoning. The weak subtropical ridge currently to the north of Sam is forecast to shift eastward as a large deep-layer mid-latitude trough develops over the western Atlantic. This evolution should cause Sam to continue west-northwestward with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the northwest. Some increase in forward speed is likely by 120 h as Sam encounters stronger steering flow. The track guidance has shifted a little to the north and east since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in that direction, with the new track lying between the HCCA corrected consensus model and the other consensus models. Based on the NHC forecast, and all of the other guidance, Sam is expected to still be well to the east or northeast of the northern Leeward Islands through day 5.

The current strengthening is expected to continue for the next 6-12 h, and based on this the new intensity forecast now calls for a peak intensity of 130 kt. After the peak, Sam is expected to be in an environment of warm sea surface temperatures and light wind shear for at least the next 3-4 days. This suggests the intensity will be controlled mainly by eyewall replacement cycles and possible intrusions of dry air, which would cause some short-term fluctuations in intensity. In the bigger picture, the intensity guidance calls for a slow weakening during the 24-120 h forecast period, and the new intensity forecast does the same. However, it is likely that Sam will remain a major hurricane through 120 h.

After a brief hiccup, Sam has resumed rapid strengthening and now shows a 12-15 n mi wide well-defined eye embedded in a central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -70C. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 115 kt at 18Z, and objective intensity estimates have also been near 115 kt. Since the organization has increased some since 18Z, the initial intensity is increased to 120 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to Sam to provide a better estimate of the intensity. The hurricane has good cirrus outflow in all quadrants. However, a large arc cloud to the northwest of the central core suggests dry air is present in that area.

The initial motion is still west-northwestward or 290/9. There are again no changes to the forecast track reasoning. The weak subtropical ridge currently to the north of Sam is forecast to shift eastward as a large deep-layer mid-latitude trough develops over the western Atlantic. This evolution should cause Sam to continue west-northwestward with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the northwest. Some increase in forward speed is likely by 120 h as Sam encounters stronger steering flow. The track guidance has shifted a little to the north and east since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in that direction, with the new track lying between the HCCA corrected consensus model and the other consensus models. Based on the NHC forecast, and all of the other guidance, Sam is expected to still be well to the east or northeast of the northern Leeward Islands through day 5.

The current strengthening is expected to continue for the next 6-12 h, and based on this the new intensity forecast now calls for a peak intensity of 130 kt. After the peak, Sam is expected to be in an environment of warm sea surface temperatures and light wind shear for at least the next 3-4 days. This suggests the intensity will be controlled mainly by eyewall replacement cycles and possible intrusions of dry air, which would cause some short-term fluctuations in intensity. In the bigger picture, the intensity guidance calls for a slow weakening during the 24-120 h forecast period, and the new intensity forecast does the same. However, it is likely that Sam will remain a major hurricane through 120 h.

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