FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Sam
LOCATED
325 MI SE OF BERMUDA
WINDS
150 MPH
PRESSURE
936 MB
MOVING
N AT 21 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021
Sam remains a powerful category 4 hurricane over the central Atlantic.
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key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas this afternoon, and then spread to the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the island.

1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas this afternoon, and then spread to the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the island.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas this afternoon, and then spread to the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas this afternoon, and then spread to the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 61.8 West. Sam is moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward the north northeast, at a slightly slower forward speed, is expected by tonight, followed by a northeastward motion Saturday night through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will pass well to the east of Bermuda tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still possible today, weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through at least Saturday night. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 936 mb (27.64 inches).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 61.8 West. Sam is moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward the north northeast, at a slightly slower forward speed, is expected by tonight, followed by a northeastward motion Saturday night through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will pass well to the east of Bermuda tonight. Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still possible today, weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through at least Saturday night. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 936 mb (27.64 inches).

Sam remains a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale over the subtropical central Atlantic. Satellite images show that the hurricane still has a circular and quite distinct eye and closed eyewall. However, an 0827 UTC SSMIS pass indicated that a dry slot was present on the eastern side of the circulation between the eyewall and rainbands. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin range from 102-115 kt. However, Air Force reconnaissance data from earlier this morning showed that the winds were much higher, and in fact, the Dvorak estimates have had a low bias compared to the Hurricane Hunter data for the past 24-36 hours. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 130 kt for now. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Sam this afternoon. An ASCAT-A pass from around 12Z indicated that Sam's tropical-storm-force wind radii have expanded, and the initial wind radii were adjusted based on that data. In addition, the eye of Sam passed about 60 n mi east of NOAA buoy 41049 earlier this morning. The buoy reported a minimum pressure of 998 mb, maximum winds of around 45 kt, gusts to 62 kt, and maximum seas of about 22 ft.

The major hurricane has turned to the north and is now moving faster. The latest initial motion estimate is 355/18 kt. The large-scale pattern consists of a deep-layer ridge to the northeast of Sam and a large low pressure system centered over Atlantic Canada. The steering flow between these features should cause Sam to move northeastward at a sightly slower pace this weekend. By early next week, the deep-layer low is expected to retreat northward, which should cause Sam to turn a little more to the right. The models are in fairly good agreement, but there are some notable speed differences with the UKMET model being a fast outlier. The new NHC track forecast is slightly to the right of the previous one at 60 and 72 h, but is otherwise very similar. This forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Sam is expected to slowly weaken during the next several days as it moves over progressively cooler waters and into an environment of stronger shear. The hurricane will likely begin extratropical transition in a couple of days when it crosses the 26 degree C isotherm, and this transition is expected to be completed by 96 hours. All of the model guidance shows steady weakening through the forecast period, and so does the NHC forecast. This prediction is close to the IVCN, IVDR, and HCCA models in the short term and near the GFS model during the extratropical portion of the forecast. Even though Sam is likely to weaken, it is still expected to be a significant storm over the next several days.

Sam remains a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale over the subtropical central Atlantic. Satellite images show that the hurricane still has a circular and quite distinct eye and closed eyewall. However, an 0827 UTC SSMIS pass indicated that a dry slot was present on the eastern side of the circulation between the eyewall and rainbands. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin range from 102-115 kt. However, Air Force reconnaissance data from earlier this morning showed that the winds were much higher, and in fact, the Dvorak estimates have had a low bias compared to the Hurricane Hunter data for the past 24-36 hours. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 130 kt for now. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Sam this afternoon. An ASCAT-A pass from around 12Z indicated that Sam's tropical-storm-force wind radii have expanded, and the initial wind radii were adjusted based on that data. In addition, the eye of Sam passed about 60 n mi east of NOAA buoy 41049 earlier this morning. The buoy reported a minimum pressure of 998 mb, maximum winds of around 45 kt, gusts to 62 kt, and maximum seas of about 22 ft.

The major hurricane has turned to the north and is now moving faster. The latest initial motion estimate is 355/18 kt. The large-scale pattern consists of a deep-layer ridge to the northeast of Sam and a large low pressure system centered over Atlantic Canada. The steering flow between these features should cause Sam to move northeastward at a sightly slower pace this weekend. By early next week, the deep-layer low is expected to retreat northward, which should cause Sam to turn a little more to the right. The models are in fairly good agreement, but there are some notable speed differences with the UKMET model being a fast outlier. The new NHC track forecast is slightly to the right of the previous one at 60 and 72 h, but is otherwise very similar. This forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Sam is expected to slowly weaken during the next several days as it moves over progressively cooler waters and into an environment of stronger shear. The hurricane will likely begin extratropical transition in a couple of days when it crosses the 26 degree C isotherm, and this transition is expected to be completed by 96 hours. All of the model guidance shows steady weakening through the forecast period, and so does the NHC forecast. This prediction is close to the IVCN, IVDR, and HCCA models in the short term and near the GFS model during the extratropical portion of the forecast. Even though Sam is likely to weaken, it is still expected to be a significant storm over the next several days.

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