FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Sam
LOCATED
240 MI SE OF BERMUDA
WINDS
150 MPH
PRESSURE
937 MB
MOVING
N AT 20 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021
Core of Sam forecast to pass well east of Bermuda tonight.
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key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the island.

1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the island.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 61.8 West. Sam is moving toward the north near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the north northeast, at a slightly slower forward speed, is expected by tonight, followed by a northeastward motion Saturday night through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will pass well to the east of Bermuda tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still possible, weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through at least Saturday night. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 61.8 West. Sam is moving toward the north near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the north northeast, at a slightly slower forward speed, is expected by tonight, followed by a northeastward motion Saturday night through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will pass well to the east of Bermuda tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still possible, weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through at least Saturday night. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).

Sam remains a powerful hurricane. The eye is still very distinct and there are several mesovorticies evident in satellite imagery. In addition, microwave images show a closed and symmetric eyewall. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Sam has been maintaining its category 4 intensity. The aircraft measured peak flight-level winds at 700 mb of 152 kt, which corresponds to a 135-140 kt surface wind. However, the peak SFMR winds are around 115 kt. Dropsonde data from the aircraft show a sharp decrease in winds around the 925 mb level, which could mean that the strongest winds are not reaching the surface. The minimum pressure in the eye remains very low though at 937 mb. Based on all of this data, the initial intensity is held at 130 kt, but there is some uncertainty in that estimate.

The major hurricane continues northward and the latest initial motion estimate is 355/17 kt. The large-scale pattern consists of a deep-layer ridge to the northeast of Sam and a large low pressure system centered over Atlantic Canada. The steering flow between these features should cause Sam to move northeastward at a sightly slower pace this weekend. By early next week, the deep-layer low is expected to retreat northward, which should cause Sam to turn a little more to the right. The models are in fairly good agreement, but there are some notable speed differences with the UKMET on the faster side and the GFS on the slower side of the guidance envelope. No major changes were made to the NHC track forecast, and it remains near the consensus aids.

Sam is expected to slowly weaken during the next several days as it moves over progressively cooler waters and into an environment of stronger shear. The hurricane will likely begin extratropical transition in a couple of days when it crosses the 26 degree C isotherm, and this transition is expected to be completed shortly after 72 hours. All of the model guidance shows steady weakening through the forecast period, and so does the NHC forecast. This prediction is close to the IVCN, IVDR, and HCCA models in the short term and near the GFS model during the extratropical portion of the forecast. Even though Sam is likely to weaken, it is still expected to be a significant storm over the next several days.

Sam remains a powerful hurricane. The eye is still very distinct and there are several mesovorticies evident in satellite imagery. In addition, microwave images show a closed and symmetric eyewall. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Sam has been maintaining its category 4 intensity. The aircraft measured peak flight-level winds at 700 mb of 152 kt, which corresponds to a 135-140 kt surface wind. However, the peak SFMR winds are around 115 kt. Dropsonde data from the aircraft show a sharp decrease in winds around the 925 mb level, which could mean that the strongest winds are not reaching the surface. The minimum pressure in the eye remains very low though at 937 mb. Based on all of this data, the initial intensity is held at 130 kt, but there is some uncertainty in that estimate.

The major hurricane continues northward and the latest initial motion estimate is 355/17 kt. The large-scale pattern consists of a deep-layer ridge to the northeast of Sam and a large low pressure system centered over Atlantic Canada. The steering flow between these features should cause Sam to move northeastward at a sightly slower pace this weekend. By early next week, the deep-layer low is expected to retreat northward, which should cause Sam to turn a little more to the right. The models are in fairly good agreement, but there are some notable speed differences with the UKMET on the faster side and the GFS on the slower side of the guidance envelope. No major changes were made to the NHC track forecast, and it remains near the consensus aids.

Sam is expected to slowly weaken during the next several days as it moves over progressively cooler waters and into an environment of stronger shear. The hurricane will likely begin extratropical transition in a couple of days when it crosses the 26 degree C isotherm, and this transition is expected to be completed shortly after 72 hours. All of the model guidance shows steady weakening through the forecast period, and so does the NHC forecast. This prediction is close to the IVCN, IVDR, and HCCA models in the short term and near the GFS model during the extratropical portion of the forecast. Even though Sam is likely to weaken, it is still expected to be a significant storm over the next several days.

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