FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Sam
LOCATED
255 MI E OF BERMUDA
WINDS
130 MPH
PRESSURE
945 MB
MOVING
NNE AT 17 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021
Sam now moving away from Bermuda.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada today. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

2. Although the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda has been discontinued, a few wind gusts to tropical storm force will still be possible on the island during the morning.

1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada today. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

2. Although the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda has been discontinued, a few wind gusts to tropical storm force will still be possible on the island during the morning.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: A few wind gusts to tropical storm force will still be possible on Bermuda this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada today. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: A few wind gusts to tropical storm force will still be possible on Bermuda this morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada today. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 60.5 West. Sam is moving toward the north northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northeast is expected by tonight, with an increase in forward speed forecast through Monday. On the forecast track, Sam will continue to move away from Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, but Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through today or tonight. Sam is likely to become a hurricane force post tropical low by Monday night or early Tuesday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). Several automated stations on Bermuda have recently reported wind gusts near 40 mph (65 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 60.5 West. Sam is moving toward the north northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northeast is expected by tonight, with an increase in forward speed forecast through Monday. On the forecast track, Sam will continue to move away from Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, but Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through today or tonight. Sam is likely to become a hurricane force post tropical low by Monday night or early Tuesday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). Several automated stations on Bermuda have recently reported wind gusts near 40 mph (65 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters conducted their final mission into Sam a few hours ago and found that the hurricane is still of category 4 intensity, but the maximum winds have decreased some. The crew reported a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 130 kt (equating to surface winds of 115-120 kt) and unflagged SFMR winds of 110-115 kt. Based on these wind data, Sam's intensity is now estimated to be 115 kt. This value is at the upper end of the latest satellite estimates, which range from 100-115 kt. The hurricane's central pressure has also risen to 945 mb.

Sam is still moving toward the north-northeast with a motion of 020/15 kt. The hurricane is entering the area between a deep-layer ridge to the east and a large mid- to upper-level low over Atlantic Canada, and this flow should cause Sam to turn toward the northeast by tonight and then maintain that general heading for much of the forecast period. The storm is also expected to accelerate, reaching a peak forward speed of more than 25 kt in 60-72 hours. The track guidance is tightly clustered through day 3, but there is significantly more spread on days 4 and 5 due to uncertainty on exactly how Sam will interact with the aforementioned mid-/upper-level low. The NHC forecast has been placed near a blend of the GFS-ECMWF mean and the HCCA consensus aid, which necessitated a northward shift from the previous forecast only on days 4 and 5.

Deep-layer southerly shear of 15-20 kt appears to be contributing to Sam's current weakening. Continued shear and cooler waters along Sam's path should lead to additional weakening in the coming days, although not at a rapid rate due to some baroclinic forcing. Global models suggest that Sam will begin extratropical transition in about 48 hours, with that process completing by 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids during Sam's tropical phase, but then transitions to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global model guidance on days 3 through 5 during its extratropical phase. Sam is expected to continue producing hurricane-force winds through at least day 3, with more significant weakening occurring on days 4 and 5 once it is a vertically stacked occluded low.

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters conducted their final mission into Sam a few hours ago and found that the hurricane is still of category 4 intensity, but the maximum winds have decreased some. The crew reported a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 130 kt (equating to surface winds of 115-120 kt) and unflagged SFMR winds of 110-115 kt. Based on these wind data, Sam's intensity is now estimated to be 115 kt. This value is at the upper end of the latest satellite estimates, which range from 100-115 kt. The hurricane's central pressure has also risen to 945 mb.

Sam is still moving toward the north-northeast with a motion of 020/15 kt. The hurricane is entering the area between a deep-layer ridge to the east and a large mid- to upper-level low over Atlantic Canada, and this flow should cause Sam to turn toward the northeast by tonight and then maintain that general heading for much of the forecast period. The storm is also expected to accelerate, reaching a peak forward speed of more than 25 kt in 60-72 hours. The track guidance is tightly clustered through day 3, but there is significantly more spread on days 4 and 5 due to uncertainty on exactly how Sam will interact with the aforementioned mid-/upper-level low. The NHC forecast has been placed near a blend of the GFS-ECMWF mean and the HCCA consensus aid, which necessitated a northward shift from the previous forecast only on days 4 and 5.

Deep-layer southerly shear of 15-20 kt appears to be contributing to Sam's current weakening. Continued shear and cooler waters along Sam's path should lead to additional weakening in the coming days, although not at a rapid rate due to some baroclinic forcing. Global models suggest that Sam will begin extratropical transition in about 48 hours, with that process completing by 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids during Sam's tropical phase, but then transitions to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global model guidance on days 3 through 5 during its extratropical phase. Sam is expected to continue producing hurricane-force winds through at least day 3, with more significant weakening occurring on days 4 and 5 once it is a vertically stacked occluded low.

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