1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 36.4 North, longitude 57.1 West. Sam is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general track with an increase in forward speed is expected for the next few days. On the forecast track, Sam will move well southeast and east of Newfoundland over the North Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds are now near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further slow weakening is anticipated during the next few days, and Sam could transition into a powerful post tropical cyclone on Monday night. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).

Sam continues to gradually weaken. Conventional satellite imagery indicates that the eye has disappeared and that the cloud tops near the center are gradually warming. Various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are in the 90-102 kt range, while scatterometer and experimental synthetic aperture radar data suggest lower winds than that. The initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 100 kt.

The initial motion is northeastward or 040/14 kt. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected during the next couple of days as Sam is steered by southwesterly flow between a deep-layer ridge to the east and a large mid- to upper-level low over Atlantic Canada. After Sam completes extratropical transition in about 48 h, a wobbly motion generally toward the northeast is expected as Sam interacts with one or more mid-latitude shortwave troughs. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies close to the various consensus models.

The hurricane is moving toward colder water, and it is approaching a frontal zone over the north Atlantic. The cyclone should undergo extratropical transition during the next couple of days, and due to a favorable interaction with a mid-latitude trough it should weaken only slowly as it becomes a large and powerful extratropical low by 48 h. After that time, the baroclinic forcing ends and the low should gradually spin down over the far north Atlantic. The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.