1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will moveonshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally'snorthward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focuson the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's averageforecast error at

3. to

4. hours is around 60 to 80 miles, anddangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend wellaway from the center.

2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge isexpected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane andStorm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, tothe Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the Florida Panhandle, where aStorm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas shouldfollow any advice given by local officials.3. Hurricane conditions are expected late tonight or early Tuesdaywithin the Hurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and areexpected by late Tuesday and Tuesday night within the HurricaneWarning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and thewestern Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm conditions are likely tobegin this evening in these areas and preparations should be rushedto completion.4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely, as well as widespreadminor to isolated major flooding, on area rivers along and justinland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urbanflooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding islikely across Mississippi and Alabama through the middle of theweek. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across theSoutheast through the week. Sally could continue to produce flashflooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minorriver flooding across west-central Florida through today.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
- Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
- Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Morgan City Louisiana to the Navarre Florida
- Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...711 ft Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL including Mobile Bay...69 ft Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...47 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...35 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...24 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...24 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrew Bay...13 ft Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...12 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area later tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions expected to begin within the warning area during the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the middle of the week. Lifethreatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to move farther inland early Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of eastern Mississippi, central Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible through tonight over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. The threat of tornadoes is expected to increase on Tuesday in these areas, as well as over parts of southern Mississippi and extreme southeast Louisiana.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 87.5 West. Sally is moving toward the westnorthwest near 5 mph (8 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday morning. A northward turn is likely by Tuesday afternoon, and a slow northnortheastward to northeastward motion is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana tonight and Tuesday, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast tonight and early Tuesday and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the northcentral Gulf coast.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A buoy offshore of Orange Beach, Alabama, recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 mph (97 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 988 mb (29.18 inches).

After the rapid spin up of the inner core late this morning, the most recent aircraft passes through the center have not found any higher flight-level winds, however there have been a few SFMR winds of 85-90 kt reported. Using a blend of the flight-level and SFMR winds the initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt for this advisory. The next Air Force and NOAA aircraft have begun to sample the storm. Now that Sally has developed an inner core, the favorable atmospheric and ocean conditions of low vertical wind shear and warm water should allow for additional strengthening tonight while the system moves over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, and Sally could approach major hurricane strength. On Tuesday, the global models are predicting an increasing in southwesterly flow aloft, and this increase in shear, the potential for land interaction, and some upwelling over the shallower shelf waters over the northern Gulf should slow the intensification process. The NHC intensity forecast is again near the upper-end of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the HWRF and HFIP corrected consensus models.

Sally did not move much earlier today as the center re-formationtook place, but it appears that a slow west-northwestward tonorthwestward motion has resumed. Weak ridging over thesoutheastern United States is expected to steer Sally generallywest-northwestward through early Tuesday. After that time, steeringcurrents weaken and a slow northward motion is forecast as a weakmid-level trough develops over the the central United States. Thistrough is forecast to slide eastward, allowing Sally to begin aslow north-northeastward or northeastward motion. The specifictiming and location of the turn will be critical as to the eventuallocation and timing of landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast.The UKMET and ECMWF models show a more northeastward motion afterthe turn and have trended eastward, with the ECMWF much slower thanthe remainder of the guidance. The NHC track has been adjustedeastward, and this requires and eastward extension of the hurricanewarning. The new track most closely follows the GFS and it ensemblemean, but lies to the west of the various consensus aids, so someadditional eastward adjustments could be needed in subsequentadvisories.

Given the uncertainty in the timing and location of the northwardturn and the lack of well-defined steering currents, users arereminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or the specifictiming and location of landfall. Hurricane-force winds, dangerousstorm surge, and flooding rainfall will affect a large portion ofthe north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days.