1. It is still too early to determine where Sally's center will moveonshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally'snorthward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focuson the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's averageforecast error at

3. hours is around 60 miles, and dangerous stormsurge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from thecenter.

2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge isexpected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane andStorm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, tothe Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the Florida Panhandle, where aStorm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas shouldfollow any advice given by local officials.3. Hurricane conditions are expected early Tuesday within theHurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and areexpected by late Tuesday and Tuesday night within the HurricaneWarning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and thewestern Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm conditions are alreadyoccurring in some of these areas.

4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely with Sally, as well aswidespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers, alongand just inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash andurban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate riverflooding is likely across inland portions of Mississippi and Alabamaand into northern Georgia, southeastern Tennessee and the westernCarolinas through the week. Sally may continue to produce flashflooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minorriver flooding across west-central Florida through tonight.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
- Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
- Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Grand Isle Louisiana to the Navarre Florida
- Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida
- West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Dauphin Island including Lake Borgne...69 ft Mobile Bay...69 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...35 ft Dauphin Island to AL/FL Border...47 ft Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...24 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay an Choctawhatchee Bay...24 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Chassahowitzka including Saint Andrew Bay...13 ft Burns Point to Port Fourchon...12 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area later today. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the warning area across Alabama, and these conditions will gradually spread westward this morning.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi through the middle of the week. Lifethreatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to turn inland early Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of eastern Mississippi, central Alabama, northern Georgia, southeastern Tennessee, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

Outer bands of Sally could produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula through tonight. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible this morning in coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. The threat for tornadoes should increase and slowly spread inland during the day today.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 88.0 West. Sally is moving slowly toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westnorthwestward motion is expected to resume later this morning. A northward turn is expected this afternoon, followed by a slow northnortheastward to northeastward motion tonight and continuing through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana later today, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area tonight or Wednesday morning.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. However, some restrengthening is forecast early to occur later today, and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the northcentral Gulf coast.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A NOAA CMAN observing station on Dauphin Island, Alabama, recently reported a wind gust of 51 mph (81 km/h), while a buoy just south of Dauphin Island recently reported a wind gust to 59 mph (94 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 986 mb (29.12 inches).

After rapidly strengthening earlier today, Sally's intensity hasplateaued for now. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Huntershave been investigating Sally this evening and they have found thatthe minimum pressure and winds have leveled off, and supportperhaps a generous initial intensity of 85 kt. Doppler radarimages and reports from both aircraft indicate the inner core ofthe hurricane is quite small and that the eyewall is open on thesouth side, likely due to some dry air that has wrapped intothat portion of the circulation.

Aircraft and Doppler radar fixes indicate that Sally is movingvery slowly to the west-northwest, with the latest initialmotion estimated to be 300/3 kt. Weak high pressure ridging to thenorth and east of Sally is expected to cause the hurricane tocontinue to move slowly west-northwestward to northwestward foranother 12 hours, bringing the center of the storm very nearthe northern Gulf coast. By Tuesday afternoon, when the hurricanewill likely be just offshore, the models show the steering currentscollapsing and Sally is likely to drift northward before finallyturning northeastward ahead of a developing mid-level trough overthe central U.S. by late Wednesday. There continues to be asignificant amount of uncertainty on exactly where and whenSally turns northward and makes landfall, with model solutionsranging from a landfall on the Florida panhandle to a landfall inextreme southeastern Louisiana. It should be emphasized that it isalways challenging to forecast the track of hurricanes in weaksteering currents, and in Sally's case the weak steering isoccurring very near land. The new NHC track forecast is a littleto the east of the previous one, trending toward the latestconsensus aids.

Sally is still in generally favorable environmental conditionsconsisting of very warm SSTs and low wind shear. Since thehurricane will likely remain in those conditions through Tuesdaymorning, some strengthening seems likely in the short term. In 12to 24 hours, when Sally is forecast to be very near the coast, acombination of an increase in westerly shear and cooler upwelledshelf waters should limit additional intensification. After thehurricane makes landfall, rapid weakening is forecast and Sallyshould become post-tropical in 3 to 4 days over the southeast U.S.The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the modelguidance and is quite similar to the previous one.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or thespecific timing and location of landfall. Hurricane-force winds,dangerous storm surge, and flooding rainfall will affect a largeportion of the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days.