1. It is still too early to determine where Sally's center will moveonshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally'snorthward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focuson the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's averageforecast error at

3. hours is around 60 miles, and dangerous stormsurge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from thecenter.

2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge isexpected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane andStorm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, tothe Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the Florida Panhandle, where aStorm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas shouldfollow any advice given by local officials.3. Hurricane conditions are expected early Tuesday within theHurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and areexpected by late Tuesday and Tuesday night within the HurricaneWarning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and thewestern Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm conditions are alreadyoccurring in some of these areas.

4. Historic flooding is possible with extreme life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi. Widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers is forecast along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely across inland portions of Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas through the week.

1. It is still too early to determine where Sally's center will moveonshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally'snorthward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focuson the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's averageforecast error at

3. hours is around 60 miles, and dangerous stormsurge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from thecenter.

2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the Florida Panhandle, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.3. Hurricane conditions are expected today within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in some of these areas.

4. Historic flooding is possible with extreme life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi. Widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers is forecast along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely across inland portions of Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas through the week.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been replaced by a Tropical Storm Warning from the Mouth of the Pearl River westward to Grand Isle Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Grand Isle. The Storm Surge Warning between Port Fourchon and the Mouth of the Mississippi River has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
- Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida
- Mouth of the Pearl River westward to Grand Isle Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas and metropolitan New Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Dauphin Island including Lake Borgne...69 ft Mobile Bay...69 ft Dauphin Island to AL/FL Border...47 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...24 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...24 ft Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...13 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Chassahowitzka including Saint Andrew Bay...13 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area this late afternoon or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the warning area across the western Florida Panhandle and Alabama, and these conditions will gradually spread westward this morning and continue into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land producing 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi. Historic flooding is possible with extreme lifethreatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to turn inland early Wednesday and move across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible this morning in coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. The tornado threat should increase and slowly spread inland the rest of today into Wednesday.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 88.1 West. Sally is moving toward the westnorthwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A northward turn is expected this afternoon, followed by a slow northnortheastward to northeastward motion tonight and continuing through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana later today, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area tonight or Wednesday morning.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Although little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs, Sally is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the northcentral Gulf coast.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 983 mb (29.03 inches).

There has been little change overall in Sally's convective structure in both satellite and Doppler radar data. An eye has tried to close off several times this morning, but after less than 30 minutes the southern eyewall has eroded. Until just recently, the central pressure had been steady for the past several hours at 986 mb. However, the most recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance pass through Sally's center reported a dropsonde pressure of 984 mb and 13 kt winds, which equals a pressure of 983 mb. Maximum 700-mbflight-level winds observed have only been 63 kt and peak SFMR winds have been 58 kt. Also, reports from nearby oil rigs have dropped off significantly since yesterday are are now in the 40-50 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 75 kt.

The initial motion estimate to 300/02 kt. After a brief jog due west, it appears that Sally ahs resumed a slow drift toward the west-northwest. Sally is embedded within weak steering flow based on 0000Z upper-air data indicating 500-mb heights of 5900 meters and slightly higher surrounding the cyclone from Florida northward into the Tennessee Valley and then westward into the central and southern Plains. This weak steering pattern is expected to persist for the next few days, with a weak mid-level trough expected to move into the Missouri and Tennessee Valleys by Wednesday and Thursday, which will gradually lift Sally northward and then northeastward. Sally is forecast to merge with a frontal system by day 4 or 5. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory and lies down the middle of the rather divergent model guidance envelope.

Sally is now expected to remain in a moderate to high mid-to upper-level wind shear environment. Ina addition, some modest upwelling is likely occurring in the inner-core region based a SST decrease of nearly 2 deg F during the past 24 hours based on data from buoy 42012. After the Sally makes landfall, rapid weakening is forecast and Sally should become post-tropical in 3 days or less.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or thespecific timing and location of landfall. Hurricane-force winds,dangerous storm surge, and flooding rainfall will affect a largeportion of the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days.

Corrected initial intensity from 80 kt to 75 kt

There has been little change overall in Sally's convective structure in both satellite and Doppler radar data. An eye has tried to close off several times this morning, but after less than 30 minutes the southern eyewall has eroded. Until just recently, the central pressure had been steady for the past several hours at 986 mb. However, the most recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance pass through Sally's center reported a dropsonde pressure of 984 mb and 13 kt winds, which equals a pressure of 983 mb. Maximum 700-mbflight-level winds observed have only been 63 kt and peak SFMR winds have been 58 kt. Also, reports from nearby oil rigs have dropped off significantly since yesterday are are now in the 40-50 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 75 kt.

The initial motion estimate to 300/02 kt. After a brief jog due west, it appears that Sally ahs resumed a slow drift toward the west-northwest. Sally is embedded within weak steering flow based on 0000Z upper-air data indicating 500-mb heights of 5900 meters and slightly higher surrounding the cyclone from Florida northward into the Tennessee Valley and then westward into the central and southern Plains. This weak steering pattern is expected to persist for the next few days, with a weak mid-level trough expected to move into the Missouri and Tennessee Valleys by Wednesday and Thursday, which will gradually lift Sally northward and then northeastward. Sally is forecast to merge with a frontal system by day 4 or 5. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory and lies down the middle of the rather divergent model guidance envelope.

Sally is now expected to remain in a moderate to high mid-to upper-level wind shear environment. Ina addition, some modest upwelling is likely occurring in the inner-core region based a SST decrease of nearly 2 deg F during the past 24 hours based on data from buoy 42012. After the Sally makes landfall, rapid weakening is forecast and Sally should become post-tropical in 3 days or less.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or thespecific timing and location of landfall. Hurricane-force winds,dangerous storm surge, and flooding rainfall will affect a largeportion of the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days.

Corrected Key Messages 2 and 3

There has been little change overall in Sally's convective structure in both satellite and Doppler radar data. An eye has tried to close off several times this morning, but after less than 30 minutes the southern eyewall has eroded. Until just recently, the central pressure had been steady for the past several hours at 986 mb. However, the most recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance pass through Sally's center reported a dropsonde pressure of 984 mb and 13 kt winds, which equals a pressure of 983 mb. Maximum 700-mbflight-level winds observed have only been 63 kt and peak SFMR winds have been 58 kt. Also, reports from nearby oil rigs have dropped off significantly since yesterday are are now in the 40-50 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 75 kt.

The initial motion estimate to 300/02 kt. After a brief jog due west, it appears that Sally has resumed a slow drift toward the west-northwest. Sally is embedded within weak steering flow based on 0000Z upper-air data indicating 500-mb heights of 5900 meters and slightly higher surrounding the cyclone from Florida northward into the Tennessee Valley and then westward into the central and southern Plains. This weak steering pattern is expected to persist for the next few days, with a weak mid-level trough forecast to move into the Missouri and Tennessee Valleys by Wednesday and Thursday, which will gradually lift Sally northward and then northeastward. Sally is forecast to merge with a frontal system by day 4 or 5. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory and lies down the middle of the rather divergent model guidance envelope.

Sally is now expected to remain in a moderate to high mid-to upper-level wind shear environment. Ina addition, some modest upwelling is likely occurring in the inner-core region based a SST decrease of nearly 2 deg F during the past 24 hours based on data from buoy 42012. After the Sally makes landfall, rapid weakening is forecast and Sally should become post-tropical in 3 days or less.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or thespecific timing and location of landfall. Hurricane-force winds,dangerous storm surge, and flooding rainfall will affect a largeportion of the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days.