1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected from the Mouth of theMississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the FloridaPanhandle. The highest inundation is expected along the Alabamacoast, including Mobile Bay.

2. Historic life-threatening flash flooding is likely through Wednesday along and just inland of the coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi. Widespread moderate to major river flooding is forecast along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding, are likely across inland portions of Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas through the week.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected today within portions of theHurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlinesand the western Florida Panhandle.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning for Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
- Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- East of Bay St. Louis to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida
- Bay St. Louis westward to Grand Isle Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...47 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...46 ft Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL Border...35 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...35 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...24 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line,FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrews Bay...13 ft Grand Isle, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...13 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in portions of the warning areas, and these conditions will continue through Wednesday night. RAINFALL: Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi. Historic flooding is likely with extreme lifethreatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to move inland Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes may occur today through Wednesday across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 88.2 West. Sally is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow north northwestward to northward motion is expected this afternoon, followed by a slow northward to northnortheastward motion tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will pass near the coast of southeastern Louisiana today, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area late tonight or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Although little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs, Sally is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the northcentral Gulf coast.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 983 mb (29.03 inches).

The satellite presentation of Sally has not changed much sinceovernight. A ragged eye is seen in WSR-88D radar imagery, witha band occasionally trying to wrap around the southwestern side.A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft has just recently provided a new center fix, and data from the center drop indicated the minimum pressure is 983 mb. The first pass through the northeastern quadrant suggests that the 50-kt wind field may have expanded, but there has been little change in peak winds reported by the aircraft. The intensity has been held at 75 kt pending additional data from the NOAA P-3 mission that has just begun. A highly elevated oil rig just northeast of the center reported peak has reported sustained winds of 69 kt with a gust to 86 kt around 1200 UTC this morning.

Sally has been meandering this morning, but the longer-term motion is northwestward or 315/2 kt. Sally remains within an area of weaksteering flow, but a weak mid-level trough over the south-centralUnited States is forecast to slide eastward over the next over thenext couple of days. This pattern should cause Sally to move veryslowly north-northwestward to northward over the next 24 hours, withthe center of the hurricane nearing the northern Gulf Coast latetonight or Wednesday. By late Wednesday, Sally should turnnortheastward as the aforementioned trough approaches Missouri andArkansas. The new forecast has been nudged slightly eastward in the early portion of the track forecast, but the latter portion is very close to the previous advisory. The new track lies a little to the west of the various consensus aids in deference to the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models that are near the leftedge of the guidance envelope. Sally's forward motion is forecastto be around 5 kt or less throughout the forecast period, whichwill result in a long period of heavy rainfall and historic floodingalong the north-central Gulf Coast.

Moderate westerly shear and upwelling beneath the slow movinghurricane are likely to prevent strengthening today. The shear isforecast to increase tonight and although some slight weakeningcould occur before the center reaches the coast, Sally is predictedto remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall. Once Sally movesinland, rapid weakening is expected and circulation is forecast tolose definition and dissipate by day 4.

Users are reminded to not focus on the specific timing and location of landfall. Life-threatening storm surge, historic flash flooding from heavy rainfall, and dangerous winds will affect a large portion of the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days.