FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Sally
LOCATED
60 MI SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
WINDS
105 MPH
PRESSURE
968 MB
MOVING
NNE AT 2 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 130 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
SALLY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREAD ONSHORE THE GULF COAST FROM PENSACOLA BEACH FLORIDA WESTWARD TO DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Historic, life-threatening flash flooding due to rainfall islikely through Wednesday along and just inland of the coast from theFlorida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to theAlabama/Mississippi border. Widespread moderate to major riverflooding is forecast across the Florida Panhandle and southernAlabama. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well aswidespread minor to moderate river flooding, is likely across inlandportions of Mississippi and Alabama, and into Georgia and thewestern Carolinas this week.

2. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of thecoastline from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle, includingMobile Bay.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected this morning and then continue into this afternoon within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle.

1. Historic, life-threatening flash flooding due to rainfall islikely through Wednesday along and just inland of the coast from theFlorida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to theAlabama/Mississippi border. Widespread moderate to major riverflooding is forecast across the Florida Panhandle and southernAlabama. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well aswidespread minor to moderate river flooding, is likely across inlandportions of Mississippi and Alabama, and into Georgia and thewestern Carolinas this week.

2. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of thecoastline from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle, includingMobile Bay.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected this morning and then continue into this afternoon within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Mississippi/Alabama border to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida
- Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- East of Bay St. Louis Mississippi to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- East of the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida to Indian Pass Florida
- Bay St. Louis Mississippi westward to Grand Isle Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Mississippi/Alabama border to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida
- Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- East of Bay St. Louis Mississippi to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- East of the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida to Indian Pass Florida
- Bay St. Louis Mississippi westward to Grand Isle Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to the Alabama/Mississippi border. Historic, lifethreatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to turn inland today and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, central and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dauphin Island AL to Okaloosa/Walton County FL Line...47 ft Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay FL...47 ft Mobile Bay...35 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Walton/Bay County line FL...24 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to MS/AL Border including Lakes Pontchartrain, Maurepas and Borgne...13 ft MS/AL Border to Dauphin Island AL...24 ft Walton/Bay County line to Chassahowitzka FL including Saint Andrew Bay...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and Alabama. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning areas through tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through today across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to the Alabama/Mississippi border. Historic, lifethreatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to turn inland today and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, central and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dauphin Island AL to Okaloosa/Walton County FL Line...47 ft Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay FL...47 ft Mobile Bay...35 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Walton/Bay County line FL...24 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to MS/AL Border including Lakes Pontchartrain, Maurepas and Borgne...13 ft MS/AL Border to Dauphin Island AL...24 ft Walton/Bay County line to Chassahowitzka FL including Saint Andrew Bay...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and Alabama. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning areas through tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through today across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 130 AM CDT (0630 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 87.8 West. Sally is moving toward the northnortheast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A northnortheastward to northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf Coast this morning, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area later today. Sally is then expected to move inland across southeastern Alabama tonight.

Recent data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and the Mobile Alabama Doppler weather radar indicate that Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some further strengthening is possible before Sally makes landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall occurs.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A sustained wind of 81 mph (130 km/h) with a gust to 110 mph (178 km/h) was recently reported in Sally's northern eyewall by NOAA buoy 42012, located about 50 miles southeast of Mobile, Alabama. A sustained wind of 72 mph (117 km/h) and a gust to 90 mph (144 km/h) were recently measured by the NOAA CMAN observing station on Dauphin Island, Alabama.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Hurricane Hunters was 968 mb (28.58 inches).

At 130 AM CDT (0630 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 87.8 West. Sally is moving toward the northnortheast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A northnortheastward to northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf Coast this morning, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area later today. Sally is then expected to move inland across southeastern Alabama tonight.

Recent data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and the Mobile Alabama Doppler weather radar indicate that Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some further strengthening is possible before Sally makes landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall occurs.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A sustained wind of 81 mph (130 km/h) with a gust to 110 mph (178 km/h) was recently reported in Sally's northern eyewall by NOAA buoy 42012, located about 50 miles southeast of Mobile, Alabama. A sustained wind of 72 mph (117 km/h) and a gust to 90 mph (144 km/h) were recently measured by the NOAA CMAN observing station on Dauphin Island, Alabama.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Hurricane Hunters was 968 mb (28.58 inches).

Justification for this special advisory is to increase the initial intensity and the 12-h forecast intensity at landfall.

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Mobile Alabama WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that Sally has continued to strengthen this morning. Radar data show that Sally's eye has become better defined and Doppler velocities in the northern eyewall have reached average values of at least 110 kt between 5000-6000 ft ASL, which supports an equivalent surface wind speed of about 89 kt. The reconnaissance aircraft has recently measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 103 kt, which equates to about 93 kt using a standard 90 percent adjustment factor, while peak SFMR surface wind speed have been 85 kt. In addition, a recent dropsonde in the northeast eyewall measured an average wind speed of 113 kt in the lowest 150 meters, which equates to about a 94-kt surface wind. However, those winds appeared to be possibly contaminated by wind gusts. Based on the above data, the initial intensity has been increased to 90 kt.Some additional slight strengthening is possible until landfall occur, and Sally could peak at 95 kt. Rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland, and the system should become a remnant low in a couple of days. This is consistent with the latest model guidance.

Radar and aircraft center fixes indicate that Sally's motion is north-northeastward, or 030/02 kt. No changes were made to the previous track forecast. Sally should continue to move north-northeastward this morning, and then turn northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed by tonight. That motion will then continue for the next day or so. Then, as Sally approaches the westerly flow at higher latitudes, the cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast with a slight further increase in forward speed until becoming a dissipating remnant low near the southeast U.S. coast in 2-3 days. The official forecast is close to the latest corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA, prediction.

Justification for this special advisory is to increase the initial intensity and the 12-h forecast intensity at landfall.

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Mobile Alabama WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that Sally has continued to strengthen this morning. Radar data show that Sally's eye has become better defined and Doppler velocities in the northern eyewall have reached average values of at least 110 kt between 5000-6000 ft ASL, which supports an equivalent surface wind speed of about 89 kt. The reconnaissance aircraft has recently measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 103 kt, which equates to about 93 kt using a standard 90 percent adjustment factor, while peak SFMR surface wind speed have been 85 kt. In addition, a recent dropsonde in the northeast eyewall measured an average wind speed of 113 kt in the lowest 150 meters, which equates to about a 94-kt surface wind. However, those winds appeared to be possibly contaminated by wind gusts. Based on the above data, the initial intensity has been increased to 90 kt.Some additional slight strengthening is possible until landfall occur, and Sally could peak at 95 kt. Rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland, and the system should become a remnant low in a couple of days. This is consistent with the latest model guidance.

Radar and aircraft center fixes indicate that Sally's motion is north-northeastward, or 030/02 kt. No changes were made to the previous track forecast. Sally should continue to move north-northeastward this morning, and then turn northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed by tonight. That motion will then continue for the next day or so. Then, as Sally approaches the westerly flow at higher latitudes, the cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast with a slight further increase in forward speed until becoming a dissipating remnant low near the southeast U.S. coast in 2-3 days. The official forecast is close to the latest corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA, prediction.

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