1. Historic and catastrophic flooding is unfolding along and justinland of the coast from west of Tallahassee, Florida, to MobileBay, Alabama. In addition, widespread moderate to major riverflooding is forecast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as wellas widespread minor to moderate river flooding, is likely acrossinland portions Alabama into central Georgia. Widespread flash andurban flooding is possible, as well as widespread minor to moderateriver flooding, across western South Carolina into western andcentral North Carolina. Scattered flash and urban flooding ispossible, as well as scattered minor river flooding in southeastVirginia.

2. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the coastline from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle, including Pensacola Bay and southern portions of Mobile Bay.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected this morning and then continueinto this afternoon within portions of the Hurricane Warning areaalong the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western FloridaPanhandle.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning from the Mississippi/Alabama border westward to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

The Tropical Storm Warning west of the Mouth of the Pearl River has been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from the Mississippi/Alabama border to Fort Morgan, including portions of Mobile Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Fort Morgan Alabama to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- East of the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida to Indian Pass Florida
- Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 12 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should have been completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through this afternoon, Sally will produce additional rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with localized higher amounts possible along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from west of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Storm totals of 10 to 20 inches to isolated amounts of 35 inches is expected. Historic and catastrophic flooding is unfolding. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major river flooding.

Sally is forecast to turn northeastward after making landfall today and move across the Southeast through Friday, producing the following rainfall totals:

Southern and central Alabama to central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

Western South Carolina into western and central North Carolina: 4 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. Widespread flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as minor to moderate river flooding.

Southeast Virginia: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. Scattered flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as scattered minor river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dauphin Island AL to Okaloosa/Walton County FL Line...47 ft Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay FL...47 ft Mobile Bay...24 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Walton/Bay County line FL...24 ft MS/AL Border to Dauphin Island AL...24 ft Walton/Bay County line to Chassahowitzka FL including Saint Andrew Bay...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and Alabama. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning areas through tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Sally was located an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 87.7 West. Sally is moving toward the northnortheast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A northnortheastward to northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf Coast this morning, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area later today. Sally is then expected to move inland across southeastern Alabama tonight.

Recent data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and the Mobile Alabama Doppler weather radar indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight increase in strength is possible before the center of Sally's eye makes landfall later this morning. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall occurs.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A sustained wind of 98 mph (157 km/h) and a gust to 116 mph (187 km/h) were recently measured by an elevated NOS COOP observing station in Fort Morgan, Alabama. A University of Florida weather tower located at Gulf Shores, Alabama, reported a sustained wind speed of 75 mph (121 km/h) and a gust to 93 mph (150 km/h). NOAA buoy 42012, located about 50 miles southeast of Mobile, Alabama, recently reported a sustained wind of 71 mph (115 km/h) and a pressure of 970.9 mb inside the eastern portion of Sally's eye.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on the buoy data is 965 mb (28.50 inches).

There has been little change in Sally's convective structure during the past few hours as seen in radar and satellite data. The initial intensity of 90 kt is based on previous reconnaissance SFMR surface wind data of 88 kt in the northeastern quadrant, along with average Doppler radar values of 114 kt between 4500-5000 ft ASL, which supports an equivalent surface wind speed of about 90 kt. The reconnaissance aircraft has recently measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 110 kt, but those winds may not be making it down to the surface based on earlier buoy wind reports underneath the eyewall. Although the northern eyewall has moved onshore between Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay, some slight strengthening is still possible until the center of Sally's eye makes landfall later this morning. Rapid weakening is forecast after the center moves inland, and the system should become a remnant low in a couple of days. This is consistent with the latest model guidance.

Radar and aircraft center fixes indicate that Sally's motion isnorth-northeastward, or 020/03 kt. No significant changes were required to the previous track forecast. The latest NHC model guidance continues to show Sally moving slowly north-northeastward this morning, and then turn northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed by tonight. That motion should then continue for the next day or so. As Sally approaches the mid-latitude westerlies at higher latitudes, the tropical cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast with some slight increase in forward speed until itbecomes a dissipating remnant low near the southeastern U.S. coast in 2-3 days. The official forecast is close to the latest corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA, prediction.