1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will moveonshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally'snorthward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focuson the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's averageforecast error at

4. hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous stormsurge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from thecenter.

2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge isexpected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane andStorm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, tothe Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is ineffect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given bylocal officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight within the Hurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by late Tuesday within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastline. Tropical storm conditions are likely to begin later today and this evening in these areas and preparations should be rushed to completion. 4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to isolated major flooding, on area rivers along and just inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely across Mississippi and Alabama through the middle of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the Southeast through the week. Sally could continue to produce flash flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through today.

1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will moveonshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally'snorthward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focuson the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's averageforecast error at

4. hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous stormsurge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from thecenter.

2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge isexpected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane andStorm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, tothe Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is ineffect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given bylocal officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight within the HurricaneWarning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by lateTuesday within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi andAlabama coastline. Tropical storm conditions are likely to beginlater today and this evening in these areas and preparationsshould be rushed to completion.4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely, as well as widespreadminor to isolated major flooding, on area rivers along and justinland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urbanflooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding islikely across Mississippi and Alabama through the middle of theweek. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across theSoutheast through the week. Sally could continue to produce flashflooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minorriver flooding across west-central Florida through today.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from the Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border has been changed to a Hurricane Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
- Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
- Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
- Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Alabama/Florida Border to Indian Pass Florida
- Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...711 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...58 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...47 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...46 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...35 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...13 ft Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...13 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today, and are expected to begin within the warning area later today.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the middle of the week. Lifethreatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast move farther inland early Wednesday and track into the Southeast with rainfall of 6 to 12 inches possible across portions of inland southeast Mississippi and Alabama. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and western Carolinas Thursday into Friday. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across this region. Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi, Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center of Sally has reformed to the east of the previous estimated location. At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 86.9 West. Sally is moving toward the westnorthwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest tonight and a northward turn sometime on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the northcentral Gulf of Mexico today, approach southeastern Louisiana tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Afterward, Sally is expected to move slowly north northeastward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, with additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the northern Gulf Coast.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

An intense burst of deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80degrees Celsius has developed over and the to east of the centerthis morning. A recent fix from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that the center has reformed to the east of the previous estimated location, beneath the burst of deep convection. NWS WSR-88D radar imagery shows an increase in banding around the eastern and southeastern portion of new center found by the aircraft and it appears that an eye is in its formative stage. The aircraft has reported believable SFMR winds of 55 kt, and that is the basis for the initial intensity. The most recent minimum pressure estimated from the aircraft data is 991 mb, down several millibars from the first fix on this flight. Sally is located within a conducive environment of low wind shear, warm waters, and a moist atmosphere. These conditions are likely to lead to steady strengthening over the next 24 hours or so. With the recent increase in organization of the inner core, there is more confidence that Sally will strengthen to a hurricane later today or tonight. Additional strengthening is possible on Tuesday while the storm moves slowly northwestward near the coast of southeast Louisiana. Increasing westerly wind shear and land interaction will probably slow the intensification rate by late tomorrow. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is near the upper-end of the guidance envelope. Since Sally is forecast to be moving very slowly around the time of landfall a slower rate of weakening is indicated since a large portion of the circulation will remain over water for some time.

Given the recent re-formation of the center, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain west-northwestward at 5 kt. Weak ridging over the southeastern United State should steer Sally slowly west- northwestward through tonight. After that time, a northwestward to northward turn is anticipated but the exact timing and location of the turn remains uncertain. The general trend in the guidance has been eastward for the past few cycles, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models but a little west of the various consensus aids.

Regardless of the exact forecast track and intensity of Sally,the slow-moving storm is expected to cause a life-threatening stormsurge and freshwater flooding event.

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Sally recentlymeasured peak flight-level winds of 88 kt at 700 mb and SFMR windsof 78 kt north of the center, and an Air Force reconnaissanceaircraft just measured 79 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb. Thesedata indicate that Sally has rapidly strengthened into a hurricanewith an intensity of around 80 kt. In addition, data from the KEVXWSR-88D show an eye forming at around 16,000 ft altitude. Thisspecial advisory has been issued to increase the initial andforecast intensity. Additional adjustments to the intensity forecastcould be required this afternoon. Only a slight adjustment was madeto the 12-h track forecast position based on the more northward and eastward initial position.