FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Sally
LOCATED
30 MI NNE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
WINDS
70 MPH
PRESSURE
982 MB
MOVING
NNE AT 5 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020
CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major river flooding, is unfolding along and just inland from west of Tallahassee, Florida, to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Significant and widespread flooding is likely across inland portions of Alabama into central Georgia, and possible across western South Carolina, western and central North Carolina, and far southeast Virginia.

2. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of thecoastline from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle, includingPensacola Bay.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected to continue this afternoonwithin portions of the Hurricane Warning area in southern Alabamaand the western Florida panhandle.

1. Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major river flooding, is unfolding along and just inland from west of Tallahassee, Florida, to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Significant and widespread flooding is likely across inland portions of Alabama into central Georgia, and possible across western South Carolina, western and central North Carolina, and far southeast Virginia.

2. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of thecoastline from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle, includingPensacola Bay.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected to continue this afternoonwithin portions of the Hurricane Warning area in southern Alabamaand the western Florida panhandle.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Storm Surge Warning from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to the Alabama/Florida border has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Alabama/Florida border to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Mississippi/Alabama border eastward to Indian Pass Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Storm Surge Warning from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to the Alabama/Florida border has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Alabama/Florida border to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Mississippi/Alabama border eastward to Indian Pass Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through this afternoon, Sally will produce additional rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with localized higher amounts possible along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from west of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Storm totals of 10 to 20 inches to isolated amounts of 35 inches are expected. Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major river flooding, is unfolding.

Sally will track across the Southeast through Friday, producing the following rainfall totals:

Central Alabama to central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated amounts of 12 inches. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

Western South Carolina into western and central North Carolina: 4 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 9 inches. Widespread flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as minor to moderate river flooding.

Southeast Virginia: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts of 7 inches. Scattered flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as scattered minor river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...35 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Walton/Bay County Line, FL...24 ft Walton/Bay County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrew Bay...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning areas through tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through this afternoon, Sally will produce additional rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with localized higher amounts possible along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from west of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Storm totals of 10 to 20 inches to isolated amounts of 35 inches are expected. Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major river flooding, is unfolding.

Sally will track across the Southeast through Friday, producing the following rainfall totals:

Central Alabama to central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated amounts of 12 inches. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

Western South Carolina into western and central North Carolina: 4 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 9 inches. Widespread flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as minor to moderate river flooding.

Southeast Virginia: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts of 7 inches. Scattered flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as scattered minor river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...35 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Walton/Bay County Line, FL...24 ft Walton/Bay County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrew Bay...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning areas through tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located by NWS Doppler radar and surface observations near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 87.1 West. Sally is moving toward the north northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a northnortheastward to northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected this afternoon and tonight. A faster northeastward motion is forecast Thursday and Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move across the extreme western Florida panhandle and southeastern Alabama through early Thursday, move over central Georgia on Thursday, and move over South Carolina Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland this afternoon and tonight, and Sally is forecast to become a tropical depression by Thursday morning.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust of 76 mph (122 km/h) was recently reported at an unofficial observing site at Tate High School, near Pensacola, Florida. A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was recently observed at the Okaloosa Fishing Pier, near Okaloosa Island, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located by NWS Doppler radar and surface observations near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 87.1 West. Sally is moving toward the north northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a northnortheastward to northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected this afternoon and tonight. A faster northeastward motion is forecast Thursday and Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move across the extreme western Florida panhandle and southeastern Alabama through early Thursday, move over central Georgia on Thursday, and move over South Carolina Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland this afternoon and tonight, and Sally is forecast to become a tropical depression by Thursday morning.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust of 76 mph (122 km/h) was recently reported at an unofficial observing site at Tate High School, near Pensacola, Florida. A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was recently observed at the Okaloosa Fishing Pier, near Okaloosa Island, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).

NWS Doppler Radar and fixes from an Air Force Reserve HurricaneHunter aircraft indicate that Sally made landfall near Gulf Shores,Alabama, around 0945 UTC with an intensity of 90 kt and a minimumcentral pressure of 965 mb. Since that time, the center has beeninching its way inland over southeastern Alabama and the extremewestern portion of the Florida panhandle. The eye has degraded inradar imagery, and Doppler velocities are gradually decreasing.The intensity has therefore been reduced to 70 kt for this advisory. Sally should continue to rapidly weaken today, and once the majority of the circulation is onshore by Thursday morning, it should weaken to a tropical depression. The remnant low is forecast to be absorbed by a frontal boundary near the southeastern United States coastline in a couple of days.

Radar and the earlier aircraft fixes show that the longer-termmotion is 030/4 kt. Sally should continue to move north-northeastward to northeastward with a gradual increase in forwardspeed as it enters the southern extent of the mid-latitudewesterlies over the next 24-36 hours. A faster east-northeastwardmotion is expected by 36-48 hours before Sally or its remnantsmerge with the aforementioned frontal zone. The updated NHC track forecast is close to the HFIP corrected consensus, which is slightly north of the previous advisory.

As Sally moves inland, ongoing heavy rainfall and flooding will spread northeastward across southeastern Alabama and portions of Georgia and western South Carolina during the next day or two.

NWS Doppler Radar and fixes from an Air Force Reserve HurricaneHunter aircraft indicate that Sally made landfall near Gulf Shores,Alabama, around 0945 UTC with an intensity of 90 kt and a minimumcentral pressure of 965 mb. Since that time, the center has beeninching its way inland over southeastern Alabama and the extremewestern portion of the Florida panhandle. The eye has degraded inradar imagery, and Doppler velocities are gradually decreasing.The intensity has therefore been reduced to 70 kt for this advisory. Sally should continue to rapidly weaken today, and once the majority of the circulation is onshore by Thursday morning, it should weaken to a tropical depression. The remnant low is forecast to be absorbed by a frontal boundary near the southeastern United States coastline in a couple of days.

Radar and the earlier aircraft fixes show that the longer-termmotion is 030/4 kt. Sally should continue to move north-northeastward to northeastward with a gradual increase in forwardspeed as it enters the southern extent of the mid-latitudewesterlies over the next 24-36 hours. A faster east-northeastwardmotion is expected by 36-48 hours before Sally or its remnantsmerge with the aforementioned frontal zone. The updated NHC track forecast is close to the HFIP corrected consensus, which is slightly north of the previous advisory.

As Sally moves inland, ongoing heavy rainfall and flooding will spread northeastward across southeastern Alabama and portions of Georgia and western South Carolina during the next day or two.

Partners of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network include:  WDNA (Miami), WFIT (Melbourne), WMFE (Orlando), WFSU (Tallahassee), WGCU (Fort Myers), WJCT (Jacksonville), WKGC (Panama City), WLRN (Miami), WMNF (Tampa-Sarasota), WQCS (Fort Pierce), WUFT (Gainesville-Ocala), WUSF (Tampa), WUWF (Pensacola) and Florida Public Media.

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