1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane thisweekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday orMonday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity nearthe island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge,and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing.

2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions ofthe Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, andthe southeastern United States late this week and into the weekend.These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currentconditions.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 54.1 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected tonight, and some fluctuations in intensity are possible Friday and Saturday. A weakening trend is expected to begin late this weekend.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).

Teddy has intensified quickly today, with the cyclone now having amore symmetrical appearance while the eye has become mostly clear.The deep convection with cloud tops ranging from -60 to -75 degreeshave surrounded the eye for much of the day, and there arewell-defined outflow channels to the south and east of thehurricane. Both NOAA and US Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunteraircraft have spent time investigating Teddy today as it has beenintensifying and have been able to provide very useful data indetermining both the size and strength of the hurricane. The peakSFMR winds measured by the aircraft this afternoon were 113 kt, while the peak 700 mb flight-level winds were 130 kt. Based on a reduction to 117 kt from 700 mb, and assuming some slight undersampling may be occurring, the initial intensity has been raised to 120 kt.

The hurricane is expected to remain in an environment oflow-moderate shear while over warm waters for the 48 h or so. Andsince the period of rapid strengthening of Teddy appears to beongoing, the hurricane is expected to strengthen some more intotonight. Once this round of intensification completes, there willlikely be some fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacementcycles and other short term changes in structure. After 48 h, thepath of Teddy should take it over some cooler waters caused byupwelling from Hurricane Paulette last week. This should cause thecyclone to slowly weaken. By 96 h, vertical wind shear is forecastto increase ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough andassociated frontal boundary. This should hasten the weakening trendof Teddy. By 120 h, the hurricane is expected to have crossed the 26degree SST isotherm, and will begin to interact with theaforementioned mid-latitude system causing it to begin anextratropical transition that may or may not be completed by the endof the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast has beenincreased due to the higher initial intensity, and the forecasttrends fit well with the various intensity consensus and SHIPSguidance.

Teddy continues its northwestward motion, now at 11 kt. The trackguidance is in very good agreement on a continuation of this motionfor the next 72 h as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridgeover the central Atlantic. The model guidance has come into betteragreement on the evolution of the large scale features later on inthe forecast period as the hurricane is expected to recurve ahead ofthe approaching mid-latitude trough moving off the coast of theeastern United States in a few days. The new NHC track forecast islittle changed from the previous one, and is in the middle of thetrack guidance. On the forecast track, Teddy will make its closestapproach to Bermuda Sunday night into Monday.