1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane thisweekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday orMonday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity nearthe island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge,and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing.

2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions ofthe Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, andthe southeastern United States during the next few days. Theseswells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interest in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Teddy.

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 55.4 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the north by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected during the next day or so.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).

Teddy remains a powerful category 4 hurricane with a well-definedeye and intense eyewall. There have been occasional dry slotsthat have eroded some of the convection in the eyewall and rainbands, but these seem to be transient. The satellite intensityestimates currently range from 90 kt to 128 kt, and based on ablend of that data, the initial intensity is set at 115 kt for thisadvisory.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at 11 kt. Teddy is expected to continue moving northwestward at about the same forward speed during the next couple of days as it moves on the southwestern periphery of a subtropical high pressure system. By the end of the weekend, when Teddy will likely be approaching Bermuda, a turn to the north or north-northeast is forecast to occur as a mid- to upper-level trough moves closer to the system. However, the trough is expected to cut off, causing Teddy to turn slightly to the left early next week and approach Atlantic Canada in 4 to 5 days. The models are in fairly good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track prediction.The major hurricane will likely maintain its intensity, orfluctuate in strength, during the next day or so while it remainsin generally favorable conditions of low wind shear, warm waters,and a fairly moist air mass. However, the intensity models allshow a slow weakening trend after that likely due to Teddy trackingover the cool SST wake left behind from Paulette and an increase inshear by early next week. Teddy is now forecast to transition toa powerful extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecastperiod based on the global model guidance. The NHC intensityforecast lies near the high end of the guidance envelope, in bestagreement with the LGEM dynamical-statistical model.

Teddy is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seasestimated by TAFB near the core of the hurricane are around 40feet. Swells from Teddy are spreading far from the center, seeKey Messages below.