FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Teddy
LOCATED
525 MI ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
WINDS
130 MPH
PRESSURE
947 MB
MOVING
NW AT 12 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020
POWERFUL TEDDY CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane thisweekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday orMonday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity nearthe island are not yet known, there is a risk strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda, and watches may be issued later today or tonight.

2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions ofthe Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, andthe southeastern United States during the next few days. Theseswells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda late Sunday or Monday, there is still a risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on the island, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through the weekend.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane thisweekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday orMonday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity nearthe island are not yet known, there is a risk strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda, and watches may be issued later today or tonight.

2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions ofthe Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, andthe southeastern United States during the next few days. Theseswells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda late Sunday or Monday, there is still a risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on the island, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through the weekend.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interest in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Teddy. Watches may be required for Bermuda later today or tonight.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interest in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Teddy. Watches may be required for Bermuda later today or tonight.

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 56.1 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north by early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected during the next day or so, and a weakening trend is forecast to begin late this weekend.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 56.1 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north by early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected during the next day or so, and a weakening trend is forecast to begin late this weekend.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).

There was little change to the structure of Teddy since early this morning up until the past hour or so, when the eye began to fill in slightly while the cloud tops over the southern portion of the circulation warmed a bit. However, new convection with very cold cloud tops near -80 degrees C have developed recently over the northwestern quadrant, so the cyclone could just be undergoing a temporary intensity fluctuation that typically occurs in powerful hurricanes. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates range from 102 kt to 116 kt, and the initial intensity is being held at 115 kt for this advisory. There will be staggered NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hunter aircraft investigating Teddy starting this morning and continuing into the late afternoon, so they will soon be able to provide updated details on the latest structure, size, and intensity of the hurricane.

The major hurricane continues to move northwestward, now at 10 kt. Teddy is expected to remain on that general course during the next couple of days as it moves on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. By the end of the weekend, when Teddy will likely be approaching Bermuda, a turn to the north or north-northeast is forecast to occur as a mid- to upper-level trough moves off the northeastern U.S. coast. Early next week, the trough is expected to cut off, causing Teddy to turn slightly to the left and approach Nova Scotia in 4 to 5 days. The models continue to be in good agreement on this scenario, and only small adjustments were made to the previous forecast track.Teddy will likely fluctuate in intensity over the next day or so while it remains in favorable conditions of low wind shear, warm waters, and a fairly moist air mass. By late this weekend, the hurricane is forecast to traverse over cooler waters churned up by Paulette last week. This should cause a weakening trend to begin. By Monday night, vertical wind shear is expected to drastically increase ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough. This should not only weaken Teddy, but begin its transition to a large extratropical cyclone, and that transition should be completed before the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus aid HCCA through 36 h, and then trends toward the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance thereafter.

Teddy is producing a large area of high seas. The latest maximum seas estimated by TAFB near the core of the hurricane are near 45 feet. Swells from Teddy are spreading far from the center, see Key Messages below.

Both NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating Teddy since this morning. The highest flight level wind measured by the aircraft was 119 kt at 750 mb, which reduces to around 101 kt at the surface. The latest central measured by the aircraft is up 4 mb from the previous advisory, indicating only some slight weakening. Earlier microwave images indicated that an eyewall replacement cycle had been taking place and some drier air had intruded into the southern portion of the circulation, leaving a partial break in the eyewall. This may explain the reason why the aircraft have not been finding winds as strong as they did previously, and in fact found a double wind maxima in the northern portion of the circulation. These eyewall replacement cycles are common in intense tropical cyclones, and oftentimes the systems recover within 12-24 h as long as the environmental conditions support it. Over the past hour or so, the ring of deep convection has appeared less broken and is beginning to expand in size, which could be an indication that the hurricane is recovering from the eyewall replacement. Based on the possibility of some undersampling by the aircraft, the increase of only 4 mb in central pressure, and the latest convective trends, the initial intensity is being lowered only slightly to 110 kt.

Teddy continues its long trek northwestward, now at 12 kt. The hurricane is expected to remain on that general course during the next couple of days as it moves on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. By the end of the weekend, when Teddy will likely be approaching Bermuda, a turn to the north or north-northeast is forecast to occur as a mid- to upper-level trough moves off the northeastern U.S. coast. Early next week, the trough is expected to cut off, causing Teddy to turn slightly to the left and approach Nova Scotia in about 4 days. The models continue to be in good agreement on this scenario, and only small adjustments were made to the previous forecast track.The environment around Teddy will be conducive for maintaining an intense hurricane for the next 24 h or so, as the ocean temperatures will remain warm with low vertical wind shear and a fairly moist atmosphere. After 24 h, the hurricane is forecast to cross cooler waters churned up by Paulette last week. This should cause a slow weakening trend to begin. By Monday night, vertical wind shear is expected to drastically increase ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This should not only weaken Teddy, but begin its transition to a large extratropical cyclone, and that transition should be completed around day 4 of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near or a little above HCCA and IVCN through 24 h, and then trends toward the SHIPS intensity guidance thereafter.

Teddy is producing a large area of high seas. The latest maximumseas estimated by TAFB near the core of the hurricane are near 45feet. Swells from Teddy are spreading far from the center, see KeyMessages below.

There was little change to the structure of Teddy since early this morning up until the past hour or so, when the eye began to fill in slightly while the cloud tops over the southern portion of the circulation warmed a bit. However, new convection with very cold cloud tops near -80 degrees C have developed recently over the northwestern quadrant, so the cyclone could just be undergoing a temporary intensity fluctuation that typically occurs in powerful hurricanes. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates range from 102 kt to 116 kt, and the initial intensity is being held at 115 kt for this advisory. There will be staggered NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hunter aircraft investigating Teddy starting this morning and continuing into the late afternoon, so they will soon be able to provide updated details on the latest structure, size, and intensity of the hurricane.

The major hurricane continues to move northwestward, now at 10 kt. Teddy is expected to remain on that general course during the next couple of days as it moves on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. By the end of the weekend, when Teddy will likely be approaching Bermuda, a turn to the north or north-northeast is forecast to occur as a mid- to upper-level trough moves off the northeastern U.S. coast. Early next week, the trough is expected to cut off, causing Teddy to turn slightly to the left and approach Nova Scotia in 4 to 5 days. The models continue to be in good agreement on this scenario, and only small adjustments were made to the previous forecast track.Teddy will likely fluctuate in intensity over the next day or so while it remains in favorable conditions of low wind shear, warm waters, and a fairly moist air mass. By late this weekend, the hurricane is forecast to traverse over cooler waters churned up by Paulette last week. This should cause a weakening trend to begin. By Monday night, vertical wind shear is expected to drastically increase ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough. This should not only weaken Teddy, but begin its transition to a large extratropical cyclone, and that transition should be completed before the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus aid HCCA through 36 h, and then trends toward the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance thereafter.

Teddy is producing a large area of high seas. The latest maximum seas estimated by TAFB near the core of the hurricane are near 45 feet. Swells from Teddy are spreading far from the center, see Key Messages below.

Both NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating Teddy since this morning. The highest flight level wind measured by the aircraft was 119 kt at 750 mb, which reduces to around 101 kt at the surface. The latest central measured by the aircraft is up 4 mb from the previous advisory, indicating only some slight weakening. Earlier microwave images indicated that an eyewall replacement cycle had been taking place and some drier air had intruded into the southern portion of the circulation, leaving a partial break in the eyewall. This may explain the reason why the aircraft have not been finding winds as strong as they did previously, and in fact found a double wind maxima in the northern portion of the circulation. These eyewall replacement cycles are common in intense tropical cyclones, and oftentimes the systems recover within 12-24 h as long as the environmental conditions support it. Over the past hour or so, the ring of deep convection has appeared less broken and is beginning to expand in size, which could be an indication that the hurricane is recovering from the eyewall replacement. Based on the possibility of some undersampling by the aircraft, the increase of only 4 mb in central pressure, and the latest convective trends, the initial intensity is being lowered only slightly to 110 kt.

Teddy continues its long trek northwestward, now at 12 kt. The hurricane is expected to remain on that general course during the next couple of days as it moves on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. By the end of the weekend, when Teddy will likely be approaching Bermuda, a turn to the north or north-northeast is forecast to occur as a mid- to upper-level trough moves off the northeastern U.S. coast. Early next week, the trough is expected to cut off, causing Teddy to turn slightly to the left and approach Nova Scotia in about 4 days. The models continue to be in good agreement on this scenario, and only small adjustments were made to the previous forecast track.The environment around Teddy will be conducive for maintaining an intense hurricane for the next 24 h or so, as the ocean temperatures will remain warm with low vertical wind shear and a fairly moist atmosphere. After 24 h, the hurricane is forecast to cross cooler waters churned up by Paulette last week. This should cause a slow weakening trend to begin. By Monday night, vertical wind shear is expected to drastically increase ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This should not only weaken Teddy, but begin its transition to a large extratropical cyclone, and that transition should be completed around day 4 of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near or a little above HCCA and IVCN through 24 h, and then trends toward the SHIPS intensity guidance thereafter.

Teddy is producing a large area of high seas. The latest maximumseas estimated by TAFB near the core of the hurricane are near 45feet. Swells from Teddy are spreading far from the center, see KeyMessages below.

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