1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermudalate Sunday or Monday, there is still a risk of strong winds, stormsurge, and heavy rainfall on the island, and a Tropical Storm Watchis in effect.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropicalcyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada earlynext week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts fromwind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitorthe progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through theweekend.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portionsof the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during thenext few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf andrip current conditions.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday afternoon. These conditions may linger throughout most of the day Monday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas, and will spread to Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by Saturday. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 57.4 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the day or so, followed by a turn toward the north late this weekend. On the forecast track, Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely through Saturday, with a weakening trend forecast to begin on Sunday. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).

Teddy continues to have an impressive appearance on satellite images with a fairly symmetrical Central Dense Overcast, although recent images show some warming of the cloud tops over the southeastern part of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is well-defined over the northern semicircle of the hurricane and not as strong to the south. Earlier microwave images showed a concentric eyewall structure and it appears that the hurricane has re-intensified slightly over the past several hours. The current intensity estimate is set at 115 kt which is a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Some additional fluctuations in strength as a result of eyewall replacements could occur through Saturday. On Sunday and beyond, a less conducive oceanic and atmospheric environment should lead to slow weakening. However, Teddy should remain a powerful hurricane for the next several days. The numerical guidance shows that the circulation will become even larger during the forecast period due to Teddy combined with a high pressure area coming behind a cold front over the eastern United States. Teddy is expected to make the transition to an extratropical cyclone when it moves into Atlantic Canada. The hurricane continues its northwestward trek and is moving around 325/11 kt. Teddy should move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system for the next day or so. Then, the cyclone should turn northward with an increase in forward speed as it approaches a strong mid-latitude trough cutting off into a low as it moves off the northeast U.S. coast in 2-3 days. The track of the system could bend a bit the left as it interacts with the trough/low while approaching Nova Scotia. Around the end of the forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone should turn northeastward as it moves along the eastern side of a mid-level trough. The official track forecast is close to the corrected model consensus.Teddy is producing seas to 48 feet and an extensive area of large waves and swells which are impacting much of the western Atlantic basin. See the Key Messages below.