1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermudalate Sunday or Monday, Tropical Storm conditions are still likely for the island and its nearby waters beginning Sunday afternoon or evening. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropicalcyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada earlynext week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts fromwind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitorthe progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through theweekend.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portionsof the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during thenext few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf andrip current conditions.

1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermudalate Sunday or Monday, tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning Sunday afternoon or evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropicalcyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada earlynext week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts fromwind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitorthe progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portionsof the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during thenext few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf andrip current conditions.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda and beginning Sunday afternoon or evening. These conditions may linger through most of the day Monday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. Swells from Teddy will begin affecting most of the east coast of the United States later today and will reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 58.5 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is likely on Sunday, followed by a continued northward motion into early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday and move near or east of the island late Sunday and early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today. A more pronounced decrease in Teddy's maximum winds is forecast to begin on Sunday, but the wind field of the hurricane is forecast to increase substantially at the same time.

Hurricaneforce winds currently extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).

Teddy's satellite presentation has fluctuated through the early morning; most recently the eye has cooled and become poorly defined. GMI microwave imagery at 0350 UTC showed that Teddy was most of the way through an eyewall replacement cycle, and this is probably why its satellite appearance has degraded a little. AT 0600 UTC, a blend of objective and subjective intensity estimates still supported an intensity of 115 kt, but given recent trends noted in satellite imagery, the intensity is set at 110 kt for the advisory.

Little change was made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts, both of which remain near the model consensus throughout the forecast period. Teddy will likely turn northward by early Sunday as it approaches a frontal system over the western Atlantic. This should steer the hurricane east of Bermuda, though the hurricane's large wind field means that the island will still likely experience some tropical storm conditions begining Sunday afternoon or evening and continuing well into Monday. Fluctuations in intensity are likely through this period, but these fluctuations will have no impact on the overall size of Teddy's wind field, which is forecast to increase markedly, especially once it begins extratropical transition (ET).The ET process could begin as soon as Monday, and based on GFS and ECMWF model fields, it should be complete in a little more than 72 h. A rapid decrease in Teddy's max winds is expected after it becomes post-tropical, but the cyclone's wind field could actually expand further. The NHC forecast implies a due northward motion until the center of Teddy moves near Nova Scotia in about 4 days, but the cyclone's interaction with a cut-off low and a building ridge to the east of the cyclone could deflect it a little to the left between 72 and 96 h. A turn toward the northeast is expected by the end of the forecast as Teddy interacts with another mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest.

Teddy an extensive area of large waves and swells which are impacting much of the western Atlantic basin. See the Key Messages below.

The overall appearance of Teddy has degraded slightly since early this morning, with the eye no longer readily apparent in satellite imagery. However, microwave data a few hours ago showed that a well- defined outer eyewall exists with a decaying partial inner eyewall. This indicates that an eyewall replacement cycle is just about complete. The objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates generally agree on an intensity of 98-102 kt, but out of respect for the completing eyewall replacement cycle the initial intensity is set to a slightly more generous 105 kt. Teddy will be moving over slightly cooler waters caused by upwelling from Paulette over the next day or so and this should cause the hurricane to slowly weaken. However, in about 36 h the cyclone's wind field is forecast to begin expanding as it interacts with an approaching frontal system. Around 48-60 h, vertical wind shear is expected to dramatically increase as Teddy becomes embedded in the flow around a sharp mid-latitude upper-level trough. The interaction of the cyclone with both the front and trough should cause Teddy to begin an extratropical transition, with the post-tropical cyclone quickly weakening once the transition is complete. The SHIPS guidance and global model simulated satellite imagery tend to agree that the extratropical transition should be completed just after 72 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast was nudged downward slightly mainly due to the change in the initial intensity, and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. The hurricane continues its northwestward movement, now at 12 kt. The track forecast for Teddy remains essentially unchanged and is in the middle of tightly clustered guidance. Teddy is expected to turn northward to north-northeastward Sunday morning as it approaches a frontal system over the western Atlantic. This pattern should steer the hurricane east of Bermuda, though the hurricane's large wind field means that the island will still likely experience tropical storm conditions beginning by Sunday evening and continuing through much of Monday. A slight turn to the north then perhaps the north- northwest should occur Monday night into Tuesday as Teddy pivots around the upper trough. By Tuesday night, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward as the upper trough to its southwest begins to lift into the higher latitudes.

Teddy is producing an extensive area of large waves and swells which are impacting much of the western Atlantic basin. See the Key Messages below.