1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermudalate Sunday or Monday, tropical storm conditions are likely on theisland beginning Sunday evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropicalcyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada earlynext week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts fromwind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitorthe progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portionsof the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during thenext few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf andrip current conditions.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda beginning Sunday evening and could linger into Monday night.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. Swells from Teddy should reach Atlantic Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 60.9 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into early Sunday. A turn toward the north or northnortheast is expected by Sunday evening, followed by a faster northward motion early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday, and the center will pass just east of the island Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is expected over the next couple of days. A more pronounced decrease in Teddy's maximum winds is forecast to begin early next week.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The wind field of the hurricane is forecast to increase substantially starting on Sunday night.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 956 mb (28.23 inches).

The earlier eyewall replacement cycle occuring in Teddy since last night appears to have completed. There is now a more pronounced outer ring of convection noted in satellite and microwave imagery, and a large ragged eye is beginning to appear in the satellite images. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT support keeping the initial intensity at 105 kt. A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane later this evening.

There is no change to the forecast intensity and structure for Teddy. The hurricane will be moving over slightly cooler waters caused by upwelling from Paulette over the next 24h and this should cause the hurricane to slowly weaken. However, in about 36 h as the system passes east of Bermuda, the cyclone's wind field is forecast to begin rapidly expanding as it interacts with an approaching frontal system. By 48 h, vertical wind shear is expected to dramatically increase as Teddy becomes embedded in the flow around a sharp mid-latitude upper-level trough. The interaction of the cyclone with both the front and trough should cause Teddy to begin an extratropical transition, with this transition expected to be completed by 72 h. This transition timing is in agreement with the global models. Once this transition occurs, the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to rapidly weaken, but is still expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone as it approaches Atlantic Canada early next week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one and is near the SHIPS and HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. Teddy jogged a little west of track today, but the longer term motion is still northwestward at about 11 kt. This motion is expected to continue through most of the day Sunday. Teddy should then turn northward to north-northeastward late Sunday as it approaches a frontal system over the western Atlantic. This pattern should steer the hurricane east of Bermuda, though the hurricane's large wind field means that the island will still likely experience tropical storm conditions beginning by Sunday evening and continuing into Monday evening. A slight turn to the north then perhaps the north- northwest with a faster forward motion should occur Monday night into Tuesday as Teddy pivots around the upper trough. By Tuesday night, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward as the upper trough to its southwest begins to lift into the higher latitudes.

Teddy is producing an extensive area of large waves and swellswhich are impacting much of the western Atlantic basin. See theKey Messages below.