1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda late Sunday or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on theisland beginning this evening and could continue into Monday evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropicalcyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada earlynext week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts fromwind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitorthe progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portionsof the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during thenext few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf andrip current conditions.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda as early as tonight and could linger into Monday night.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 62.7 West. Teddy is moving toward the westnorthwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a northwestward motion will likely resume by this afternoon. A turn toward the north is expected tonight and then Teddy is forecast to continue generally northward for another couple days. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda tonight, and the center should pass east of the island Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Teddy is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane through Monday, then become a strong posttropical cyclone on Tuesday.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches).

The convective structure of Teddy has degraded substantially since the last advisory, with no sign of an eye in conventional satellite imagery. The most recent available microwave imagery from last night suggested that Teddy still had a very well defined low to mid-level inner-core, but this has not translated to the higher levels more apparent at night. Intensity estimates have decreased, so the initial intensity has been lowered slightly to 100 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane later this morning and should provide more information about its structure and strength.

Teddy's evolution for the next few days appears to be a tale of 3 troughs. Upper-level westerly flow associated with the first upper-level trough, affecting the storm now, is the most likely reason why the hurricane's structure has degraded and has taken on a slightly sheared appearance. Teddy will begin to encounter the 2nd trough, a deep frontal system approaching from the west, later today and that should cause the hurricane to turn north. This interaction should steer the center of Teddy east of Bermuda, but tropical storm impacts from either the large hurricane, the frontal system, or both are still likely Sunday evening through Monday night. All indications are that Teddy will then continue generally northward and merge with the frontal system, nearing Nova Scotia as an extratropical cyclone early Wednesday. Teddy's maximum winds will likely decrease sharply after it becomes post-tropical, as shown by all the intensity guidance, but its gale and storm-force wind radii will likely increase at the same time. The cyclone should turn northeastward as the 3rd trough, another mid-latitude system, approaches from the west. Teddy could be absorbed by that feature in as soon as 120 h, though this is not explicitly shown in the forecast at this time. The spread in the track and intensity guidance is quite low and confidence in both aspects of the forecast is high. There is a little more uncertainty in the wind radii evolution, but it is clear that Teddy will produce strong winds over a wide area of the northwest Atlantic during the next couple of days.

The extent of 12-foot or higher seas associated with Teddycontinues to increase. See the Key Message below regarding swellscaused by the hurricane.