1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda onMonday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginningthis evening and could continue into Monday evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropicalcyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy rain is also expected across sections of Atlantic Canada.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions ofBermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, theeast coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the nextfew days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and ripcurrent conditions.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Canso.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Lower East Pubnico to Canso Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda tonight and could continue into Monday night. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 63.4 West. Teddy is moving toward the northnorthwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, and Teddy is then forecast to continue generally northward for another couple days. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda tonight, and the center should pass east of the island Monday morning. Teddy is forecast to be approaching Nova Scotia late Tuesday or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast, and the system is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane through Tuesday, then become a strong posttropical cyclone on Wednesday.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).

Satellite images show that Teddy is continuing to maintain a central core, albeit eroded on the western side due to shear and dry air. However, the latest microwave data show a more distinct eye than conventional data would indicate, along with an open eyewall. The initial intensity is held at 90 kt, pending Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data this evening.The hurricane has turned north-northwestward and is likely to turn northward tonight and north-northeastward tomorrow due to an approaching large mid-latitude trough. By early Tuesday, the cyclone should turn back to the north-northwest as it rotates around the same trough, then turn northeastward early Wednesday ahead of yet another trough moving into from eastern Canada. Track model guidance remains in very good agreement, and only a slight westward adjustment was made to the forecast. The global models are in excellent agreement on Teddy transitioning into a large non-tropical low between Bermuda and Nova Scotia in about 2 days. In many respects, the upcoming trough interaction reminds me of an extratropical transition like Sandy 2012, thankfully happening at a good distance from land, with the GFS/ECMWF models showing pressures into the 940s tomorrow, a slight increase in maximum winds, and a large increase in the size of the tropical-storm-force winds. Beyond Tuesday, the hurricane should become post-tropical near or south of Nova Scotia and be absorbed by a larger extratropical low after day 4 to the northeast of Newfoundland. Little change was made to the official forecast, other than show a small increase tomorrow as the peak extratropical forcing deepens the cyclone. It is still worth noting every model has a rather large and strong post-tropical cyclone near Nova Scotia in 2-3 days, with hazards that will extend a very long way from the center.

Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have been reported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials are encouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water.