1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda onMonday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginningovernight and could continue into Monday evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropicalcyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canadalate Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk ofdirect impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical StormWatch is in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions ofBermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, theeast coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the nextfew days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and ripcurrent conditions.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has extended the Tropical Storm Watch east from Canso to MainaDieu Nova Scotia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Lower East Pubnico to MainaDieu Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda into Monday night. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.

At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 63.5 West. Teddy is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). Although some fluctuations in heading are likely, the hurricane is expected to move generally northward through Tuesday evening, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Wednesday. The center of Teddy will pass east of Bermuda today and then approach Nova Scotia late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible Monday night while Teddy begins to interact with an approaching frontal system. Although gradual weakening is forecast to begin midweek, the cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane Tuesday, then become a strong posttropical cyclone when it nears Nova Scotia by Wednesday morning.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). NOAA buoy 41049, located about 150 miles (240 km) southsoutheast of the center of Teddy recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (97 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).

Teddy's satellite presentation has changed little during the past several hours albeit some warming of the eye. The 53rd Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters recorded a central pressure this evening of 963 mb, unchanged from the previous mission, and the Dvorak subjective intensity estimates haven't changed either. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 90 kt for this advisory.

There is a chance, within the next 24 hours, that Teddy could strengthen a bit due to dynamic forcing as a result of the approaching baroclinic zone moving off of the northeast coast of the United States. In Fact, the HCCA intensity model shows a peak of 95 kt at the 24 hour period. By Tuesday afternoon, however, increasing southwesterly shear associated with the rapidly approaching mid-latitude major shortwave trough, from the northwest, should induce weakening. Because Teddy is a very large and strong tropical cyclone, only gradual weakening is predicted. By mid period, the large-scale models agree that Teddy will merge with the aforementioned trough and associated frontal zone and complete its extratropical cyclone transition south of Nova Scotia Tuesday evening. Teddy is still forecast to be a very large and powerful extratropical cyclone as it approaches, Nova Scotia at that time. Wind, rain, surf and storm surge hazards are expected to spread over an extensive portion of Atlantic Canada mid-week.

The forecast wind radii at the 36 hour period and beyond, are basedon the RVCN Wind Radii Consensus model that consists of abias-corrected average of the global and regional models.

The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 5 kt.The hurricane is likely to turn northward Monday morning and continue in this general motion through Wednesday morning. Around the 60 hour period, a turn north-northeastward is forecast ahead of yet another mid-latitude pulse moving into eastern Canada. No significant adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast and it lies in between the surprisingly tightly clustered model guidance.Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have beenreported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials areencouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water.