1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda today. Wind gusts near tropical-storm-force have been reported on the island and tropical storm conditions could continue into Monday evening.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropicalcyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canadalate Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk ofdirect impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical StormWatch is in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavyrainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy betweenTuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropicalcyclone.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions ofBermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, theeast coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the nextfew days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and ripcurrent conditions.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Lower East Pubnico to MainaDieu Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda into Monday night. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 63.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the northnortheast near 9 mph (15 km/h). Although some fluctuations in heading are likely, the hurricane is expected to move generally northward through Tuesday evening, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Wednesday. The center of Teddy will pass east of Bermuda today, and then approach Nova Scotia late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin midweek, but the cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane Tuesday, then become a strong posttropical cyclone when it nears Nova Scotia by Wednesday morning.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 960 mb (28.35 inches).

Where Teddy once had a ragged eye has now become a dry slot, an indication that its eyewall is becoming less defined. Some southwesterly shear and the fact that Teddy is beginning to move over the cold wake of former Hurricane Paulette are probably contributing to the degradation of Teddy's structure. Based on this trend, the intensity estimate is lowered slightly to 85 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Teddy later this morning and will give a better assessment of the hurricane's winds. For now, little change was made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts.Teddy is beginning to interact with a large deep layer trough and frontal system that will play a big role in its evolution during the next couple of days. For the remainder of today, Teddy should remain fairly distinct from the front, moving east and northeast of Bermuda. As it begins to merge with that system on Tuesday, a slight deflection toward the north-northwest is likely, and it is possible Teddy could quickly become post-tropical if it merges with the front at that time. The most recent ECMWF and GFS runs suggest that Teddy will maintain a warm core a little longer than than that as it moves over the Gulf Stream. Regardless of its exact classification, once Teddy moves north of the Gulf Stream and over much cooler waters, it is forecast to weaken below hurricane strength and become extratropical. Even with a decrease in its highest winds, Teddy will likely be producing a large area of tropical-storm-force winds when it approaches Atlantic Canada in a couple of days. After moving over Atlantic Canada, Teddy is expected to accelerate northeastward and ahead of, and then merge with, another mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest.Teddy's size will likely increase substantially during the next couple of days as it moves northward and interacts with the aforementioned frontal system. Gale force winds are likely along portions of the near shore waters of the northeast U.S. Please see products from your local office for more information about marine hazards.Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have beenreported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials areencouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water.