1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda today.Wind gusts of tropical-storm-force have been reported on theisland, and tropical storm conditions could continue today.

2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropicalcyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canadalate Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk ofdirect impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical StormWatch is in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavyrainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy betweenTuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropicalcyclone.

3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions ofBermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, theeast coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the nextfew days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf andrip current conditions.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Lower East Pubnico to MainaDieu Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda today. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon in the watch area.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 62.7 West. Teddy is moving toward the northnortheast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north overnight and northnorthwest on Tuesday. Teddy should turn to the northnortheast as it approaches Nova Scotia on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is expected to gain strength overnight, but weaken steadily by Wednesday and become a strong posttropical cyclone.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 960 mb (28.35 inches).

Teddy has weakened some since yesterday. While the maximum 700-mbwinds from the latest Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraftmission were 93 kt, the peak SFMR values were only 68 kt. A blend ofthese data with some undersampling due to the large size of Teddygives an initial wind speed of 80 kt.

The hurricane is beginning to accelerate to the north-northeast asthe long-awaited mid-latitude trough begins to pick up the cyclone.All of the guidance is in very good agreement that Teddy willbenefit from this interaction, growing in both size and maximumwinds due to this trough and warmer waters in the Gulf Stream.Thus, the hurricane should intensify overnight, and the newintensity forecast is close to the latest GFS model. Afterward,the baroclinic energy source is exhausted, and Teddy should movenorth of the Gulf Stream by Wednesday, helping to complete itspost-tropical transition. The cyclone should weaken while itaccelerates to the north-northeast across eastern Nova Scotia, theGulf of St. Lawrence, and Newfoundland before dissipating in 3-4days. No significant changes were made to the track forecast.

Teddy's size will likely increase substantially during the nextcouple of days as it moves northward and interacts with theaforementioned frontal system. Gale force winds are likely alongportions of the near shore waters of the northeast U.S. Please seeproducts from your local office for more information about marinehazards.