FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Teddy
LOCATED
295 MI NE OF BERMUDA
WINDS
100 MPH
PRESSURE
956 MB
MOVING
N AT 25 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 21 2020
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND TEDDY STRONGER
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropicalcyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canadalate Tuesday through Thursday, where direct impacts from wind, rain,and storm surge are expected. Tropical Storm Watches and Warningsare in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island andNewfoundland.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affectportions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, theBahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canadaduring the next few days. These swells are expected to causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone.

1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropicalcyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canadalate Tuesday through Thursday, where direct impacts from wind, rain,and storm surge are expected. Tropical Storm Watches and Warningsare in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island andNewfoundland.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affectportions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, theBahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canadaduring the next few days. These swells are expected to causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy between Tuesday and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropical cyclone.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Meat Cove to Tidnish
- North of Digby to Fort Lawrence
- Magdalen Islands
- Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
- Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Meat Cove to Tidnish
- North of Digby to Fort Lawrence
- Magdalen Islands
- Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
- Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 61.5 West. Teddy is moving toward the north near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this motion is expected overnight followed by a turn toward the northnorthwest on Tuesday. Teddy should turn toward the northnortheast and move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday then over the Gulf of St. Lawrence late Wednesday into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy could gain a little more strength overnight, but should weaken steadily by Wednesday and become a strong posttropical cyclone near Nova Scotia.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb (28.23 inches).

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 61.5 West. Teddy is moving toward the north near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this motion is expected overnight followed by a turn toward the northnorthwest on Tuesday. Teddy should turn toward the northnortheast and move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday then over the Gulf of St. Lawrence late Wednesday into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy could gain a little more strength overnight, but should weaken steadily by Wednesday and become a strong posttropical cyclone near Nova Scotia.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb (28.23 inches).

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter found Teddy a little strongerthis evening. Flight level peak wind was 111 kt in the eastquadrant and the highest observed SFMR wind was 69 kt. A blend of these data yields an initial intensity of 85 kt for this advisory.

Teddy is accelerating toward the north in response to a mid- toupper tropospheric mid-latitude trough approaching from thenorthwest. Dynamic forcing produced by the aforementionedbaroclinic system and warm (27-28C) waters associated with the GulfStream could induce a short period of strengthening during thenext few hours, or so. Through the remaining portion of theforecast period, Teddy will traverse cooler oceanic temperaturesnorth of the Gulf Stream and lose its baroclinic support inducing agradual weakening trend as the post-tropical cyclone quickly movesover eastern Nova Scotia, the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Newfoundland.After that time, Teddy should become absorbed by a larger non-tropical, high latitude low pressure system. There still remains much uncertainty as to whether or not Teddy will complete its extratropical transition prior to reaching Nova Scotia. The global models show the cyclone merged or embedded in the baroclinic zone, but the associated simulated infrared presentation shows Teddy maintaining a rather small warm, inner core. Regardless of it classification during that time, high winds, heavy rain, storm surge and destructive waves are still predicted for the south coast of Nova Scotia.

Teddy's horizontal wind profile is forecast to nearly double duringthe next couple of days as it moves northward and interacts withthe aforementioned baroclinic system. Gale-force winds are likelyalong portions of the near shore waters of the northeast UnitedStates. The forecast wind radii at the 24 hour period and beyondare based on the RVCN Wind Radii Consensus model that consists of abias-corrected average of the global and regional models.

Please see products from your local office for moreinformation about marine hazards, including extremely dangerous ripcurrents expected over much of the western Atlantic beaches.

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter found Teddy a little strongerthis evening. Flight level peak wind was 111 kt in the eastquadrant and the highest observed SFMR wind was 69 kt. A blend of these data yields an initial intensity of 85 kt for this advisory.

Teddy is accelerating toward the north in response to a mid- toupper tropospheric mid-latitude trough approaching from thenorthwest. Dynamic forcing produced by the aforementionedbaroclinic system and warm (27-28C) waters associated with the GulfStream could induce a short period of strengthening during thenext few hours, or so. Through the remaining portion of theforecast period, Teddy will traverse cooler oceanic temperaturesnorth of the Gulf Stream and lose its baroclinic support inducing agradual weakening trend as the post-tropical cyclone quickly movesover eastern Nova Scotia, the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Newfoundland.After that time, Teddy should become absorbed by a larger non-tropical, high latitude low pressure system. There still remains much uncertainty as to whether or not Teddy will complete its extratropical transition prior to reaching Nova Scotia. The global models show the cyclone merged or embedded in the baroclinic zone, but the associated simulated infrared presentation shows Teddy maintaining a rather small warm, inner core. Regardless of it classification during that time, high winds, heavy rain, storm surge and destructive waves are still predicted for the south coast of Nova Scotia.

Teddy's horizontal wind profile is forecast to nearly double duringthe next couple of days as it moves northward and interacts withthe aforementioned baroclinic system. Gale-force winds are likelyalong portions of the near shore waters of the northeast UnitedStates. The forecast wind radii at the 24 hour period and beyondare based on the RVCN Wind Radii Consensus model that consists of abias-corrected average of the global and regional models.

Please see products from your local office for moreinformation about marine hazards, including extremely dangerous ripcurrents expected over much of the western Atlantic beaches.

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