1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropicalcyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canadalate today through Thursday, where direct impacts from wind, rain,and storm surge are expected. Tropical Storm Watches and Warningsare in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island andNewfoundland.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affectportions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, theBahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canadaduring the next few days. These swells are expected to causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddybetween today and Thursday after it becomes a strong post-tropicalcyclone.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
- North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
- Magdalen Islands Quebec
- Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
- Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas late today or early Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 38.4 North, longitude 62.4 West. Teddy is moving toward the northnorthwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and a turn toward the northnortheast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although some weakening is likely later today and Wednesday, Teddy should be a strong posttropical cyclone when it moves near and over Nova Scotia. Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

Recent satellite imagery shows that the central convection is diminishing, with a comma-like cloud pattern developing. The current intensity is held at 85 kt based on continuity from the earlier aircraft mission. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Teddy later today which should provide a good estimate of the intensity. Teddy is moving along the northern part of the Gulf Stream and should begin to move into cooler waters later today. Therefore weakening is expected over the next couple of days. However, baroclinic forcing should keep the cyclone at or near hurricane strength while it approaches Nova Scotia. The official intensity forecast is above the model consensus to qualitatively account for baroclinic effects. After72 hours, or sooner, post-tropical Teddy should become absorbed or merge with a large extratropical low over the north Atlantic. Teddy has accelerated somewhat and is now moving north-northeastward near 24 kt. The hurricane is moving on the eastern side of a mid-tropospheric cyclone centered off the northeastern U.S. coast. Teddy should continue its north-northwestward motion today and then turn north-northeastward as the mid-tropospheric cyclone shifts northeastward. This will take post-tropical Teddy over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland during the next couple of days. The official forecast is close to the corrected dynamical model consensus, or HFIP, and similar to the previous NHC track.The wind field of Teddy should continue to expand today and tonight, and the extent of 12-ft seas is also growing. See the Key Message regarding swells due to Teddy.