1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropicalcyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canadalate today through Thursday. The most significant hazard expectedfrom Teddy is large destructive waves forecast along the southerncoast of Nova Scotia through Wednesday.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affectportions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, theBahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canadaduring the next few days. These swells are expected to causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portionsof Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland, and heavyrainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy throughThursday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
- North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
- Magdalen Islands Quebec
- Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland
- Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas late today or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 39.6 North, longitude 63.7 West. Teddy is moving toward the northnorthwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the northnortheast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night and east of Labrador on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Although some weakening is likely later today and Wednesday, Teddy should be a strong posttropical cyclone when it moves near and over Nova Scotia.

Teddy is an extremely large hurricane. Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches) based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data.

Teddy is in the late stages of extratropical transition. The hurricane has taken on a large comma shape in satellite images, with a huge dry-air intrusion aloft near the center and a cold front on the western side of the cyclone. While it is tempting to call it anextratropical now, temperature data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Teddy has maintained a significant warm core, and the strongest winds on the southwestern side appear to be more related to the cyclone and not the front. Lastly, deep convection is trying to re-develop near the center, another indication that the transition is not yet done. Thus Teddy will remain a hurricane on this advisory. The initial wind speed is set to 90 kt, a blend of the 122-kt flight-level winds, 75-kt SFMR values, and global model analyses since much of this large hurricane is not being sampled.

Teddy should transition into a post-tropical cyclone by the time it reaches Nova Scotia and steadily weaken as it moves over the cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream. The cyclone should turn northward today and north-northeastward tomorrow ahead of the next trough in the mid-latitudes. This will take Post-Tropical Teddy over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland during the next couple of days, with the cyclone likely being absorbed into a larger extratropical cyclone west of Greenland in 2-3 days. There are no significant changes to report, except to show a sooner dissipation, which is consistent with the latest global models solutions.

The hurricane-force and tropical-storm-force winds fields, plus 12-ft seas area, from Teddy have just about doubled overnight, so it is important to note that hazards will extend much farther than normal from the center of this hurricane. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter reported hurricane-force surface winds 120 n mi northwest of the center, and Canadian buoy 44150 has recently reported 34-ft significant wave heights, with the buoy still about 180 n mi from the center.