1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropicalcyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canadalate today through Thursday. The most significant hazard expectedfrom Teddy is large destructive waves forecast along the southerncoast of Nova Scotia through Wednesday.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affectportions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, theBahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canadaduring the next few days. These swells are expected to causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portionsof Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the MagdalenIslands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expectedthrough Thursday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove
- Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
- North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
- Magdalen Islands Quebec
- Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia warning area. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area on Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of PostTropical Cyclone Teddy was located near latitude 42.8 North, longitude 63.9 West. The posttropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a turn toward the northnortheast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night, and be east of Labrador on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Although weakening is likely tonight and Wednesday, Teddy should be a strong posttropical cyclone when it moves near and over Nova Scotia. Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 540 miles (870 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

Extratropical transition has been ongoing since last night, withthe cyclone's associated rain shield expanding over a great distance in the northern semicircle. In addition, multipledropsonde observations from the Air Force Reserve hurricane huntersand buoy data show a sharp temperature gradient of nearly 20degrees F from northwest quadrant to the southeast, indicative ofthe cyclone's involvement with the strong baroclinic frontal zone.Accordingly, Teddy has become a strong post-tropical extratropicalcyclone. Highest flight-level winds recorded this evening were 83kt about 85 miles northeast of the center and the highest SFMRsurface winds were 63 kt. A recent METOP-C scatterometer pass showed sustained winds no higher than 59 kt in the east quadrant.A blend of these data yields an initial intensity of 70 kt for this advisory. Further gradual weakening is forecast through the period as a result of the rapidly decreasing sea surface temperatures (less than 20C) north of the North Wall of the gulf stream. The NHC forecast indicates Teddy approaching the coast of Nova Scotia below hurricane strength, but still as a strong post-tropical extratropical low. Teddy should continue to gradually spin down as the cyclone moves north-northeastward toward Newfoundland.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 010/16 kt.A north-northeastward turn is forecast later tonight or early Wednesday in response to an approaching mid-latitude shortwave trough moving out of the northeast U.S. Teddy should move over Nova Scotia tomorrow and near the island of Newfoundland, and the adjacent waters of the Gulf of St. Lawrence Wednesday night. Afterward, the post-tropical cyclone will likely be absorbed by an even larger high latitude extratropical cyclone near Greenland. There has been no significant changes made to the NHC forecast track this evening, and it's in best agreement with the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model.