1. Teddy is expected remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone while it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada through tonight. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy is large destructive waves forecast along the southern coast of Nova Scotia today.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affectportions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, theBahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canadaduring the next few days. These swells are expected to causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portionsof Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the MagdalenIslands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expectedthrough Thursday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove
- Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia
- North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia
- Magdalen Islands Quebec
- Prince Edward Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia warning area. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area this afternoon.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada.

At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of PostTropical Cyclone Teddy was located near latitude 44.8 North, longitude 62.3 West. The posttropical cyclone is moving toward the northnortheast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia soon, and then near or over Newfoundland by tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so, but Teddy should remain a strong posttropical cyclone while passing over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 520 miles (835 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph (81 km/h) were recently reported at Hart Island along the eastern coast of Nova Scotia.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).

Teddy's deep convection has been diminishing, but based on buoyobservations the cyclone still has a strong circulation with a central pressure in the 950's. Assuming a gradual spindown of the system since the earlier aircraft observations, the estimated maximum winds have dropped to just below hurricane strength. The system is expected to traverse Nova Scotia today as a strong extratropical cyclone, and move near Newfoundland by tonight. After passing east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy merging with another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic.The estimated initial motion is north-northeastward or 025/20 kt. Teddy is embedded within a deep-layer trough that is located in the vicinity of Atlantic Canada. The post-tropical cyclone should move north-northeastward on the eastern side of the trough for the next 36-48 hours before it merges with the other low. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and also closely follows the corrected multi-model consensus, HCCA.Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells will linger over much of the southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days.