Florida Storms Icon
FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Depression Twenty
LOCATED
2030 MI E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
WINDS
35 MPH
PRESSURE
1005 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 9 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020
NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 33.5 West. The depression is moving toward the westnorthwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a slight increase in forward speed early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday night. A faster rate of strengthening is possible early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 33.5 West. The depression is moving toward the westnorthwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a slight increase in forward speed early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday night. A faster rate of strengthening is possible early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

The tropical wave and associated area of low pressure that NHC has been tracking since it emerged off of Africa a couple of days ago has become sufficiently organized to be designated as a tropical depression. A curved band of deep convection developed early this morning and persisted just to the west of a well-defined low level circulation throughout the day. An earlier ASCAT overpass showed that 25-30 kt winds over the northwestern portion of the circulation, which is the basis for the initial intensity being set at 30 kt. The depression has a rather large circulation, with the radius of maximum winds nearly 100 n mi from the center and the overall wind field appearing to extend outward over 300 n mi. The environment surrounding the cyclone over the next 36 h is characterized by moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear and plenty of warm water and atmospheric moisture. These factors are supportive of gradual strengthening, however, due to the large size of the system, it may take some time for it to consolidate. The NHC intensity forecast shows only slight strengthening through 36 h as the system consolidates, and that portion of the forecast is well below the intensity guidance. By early next week, the wind shear is expected to decrease to under 10 kt and a faster rate of intensification is indicated from 36-96 h in anticipation of the cyclone having a better structure to take advantage of the lower shear. After 96 h the intensity is held steady as northwesterly shear is forecast to increase while the system encounters some slightly drier air and moves over lower oceanic heat content. The NHC intensity forecast beyond 36 h starts well below most of the guidance, and trends close to the IVCN/ICON later on in the forecast period. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest at 8 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. This ridge is forecast to build westward over the next few days, which should result in a continued general west-northwest motion, perhaps at a slightly faster forward speed early next week. By the middle of next week, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge, partially due to interaction of Paulette and a mid- to- upper level trough over the northern Atlantic at that time, and the cyclone should turn to the northwest into this weakness. Overall, track guidance from the global and regional models is in decent agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is between the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the TVCN multimodel consen

The tropical wave and associated area of low pressure that NHC has been tracking since it emerged off of Africa a couple of days ago has become sufficiently organized to be designated as a tropical depression. A curved band of deep convection developed early this morning and persisted just to the west of a well-defined low level circulation throughout the day. An earlier ASCAT overpass showed that 25-30 kt winds over the northwestern portion of the circulation, which is the basis for the initial intensity being set at 30 kt. The depression has a rather large circulation, with the radius of maximum winds nearly 100 n mi from the center and the overall wind field appearing to extend outward over 300 n mi. The environment surrounding the cyclone over the next 36 h is characterized by moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear and plenty of warm water and atmospheric moisture. These factors are supportive of gradual strengthening, however, due to the large size of the system, it may take some time for it to consolidate. The NHC intensity forecast shows only slight strengthening through 36 h as the system consolidates, and that portion of the forecast is well below the intensity guidance. By early next week, the wind shear is expected to decrease to under 10 kt and a faster rate of intensification is indicated from 36-96 h in anticipation of the cyclone having a better structure to take advantage of the lower shear. After 96 h the intensity is held steady as northwesterly shear is forecast to increase while the system encounters some slightly drier air and moves over lower oceanic heat content. The NHC intensity forecast beyond 36 h starts well below most of the guidance, and trends close to the IVCN/ICON later on in the forecast period. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest at 8 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. This ridge is forecast to build westward over the next few days, which should result in a continued general west-northwest motion, perhaps at a slightly faster forward speed early next week. By the middle of next week, a weakness is forecast to develop in the ridge, partially due to interaction of Paulette and a mid- to- upper level trough over the northern Atlantic at that time, and the cyclone should turn to the northwest into this weakness. Overall, track guidance from the global and regional models is in decent agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is between the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the TVCN multimodel consen

Partners of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network include:  WDNA (Miami), WFIT (Melbourne), WMFE (Orlando), WFSU (Tallahassee), WGCU (Fort Myers), WJCT (Jacksonville), WKGC (Panama City), WLRN (Miami), WMNF (Tampa-Sarasota), WQCS (Fort Pierce), WUFT (Gainesville-Ocala), WUSF (Tampa), WUWF (Pensacola) and Florida Public Media.

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

(352) 392-5551

Loading...
linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram