FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Depression Twenty
LOCATED
1805 MI E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WINDS
35 MPH
PRESSURE
1007 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 10 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020
DEPRESSION POORLY ORGANIZED FOR NOW BUT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 34.6 West. The depression is moving toward the westnorthwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is anticipated. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm in about 24 hours and it could become a hurricane in a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 34.6 West. The depression is moving toward the westnorthwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is anticipated. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm in about 24 hours and it could become a hurricane in a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

The depression is poorly organized at this time. A large convective band wraps around the northern and western portions of the cyclone, but its center of circulation is exposed and appears to have become somewhat elongated. Recent ASCAT data and the latest TAFB Dvorak analysis indicate that the maximum winds remain near 30 kt.

It will take some time for the depression to get better organized, and only slight strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 h. After that time, the cyclone's environment is expected to support intensification, and the intensity guidance is quite aggressive. While the exact timing is somewhat uncertain, it is probable that the system will become a hurricane early next week. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted higher than the previous advisory beyond 48 h, but it is below or near the model consensus at all times.

Little change was made to the NHC track forecast. The depression appears to be moving generally west-northwestward near 9 kt. In general, the system should continue west-northwestward for the next couple of days, with some slight fluctuations in its track possible tonight and tomorrow as the center consolidates. A weakness in the subtropical ridge is expected to develop by the middle of next week that could steer the cyclone more toward the northwest. The guidance is in very good agreement on this general scenario, though confidence in the forecast will be somewhat low until the system becomes a little better organized and strengthens. The official forecast is based primarily on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.

The depression is poorly organized at this time. A large convective band wraps around the northern and western portions of the cyclone, but its center of circulation is exposed and appears to have become somewhat elongated. Recent ASCAT data and the latest TAFB Dvorak analysis indicate that the maximum winds remain near 30 kt.

It will take some time for the depression to get better organized, and only slight strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 h. After that time, the cyclone's environment is expected to support intensification, and the intensity guidance is quite aggressive. While the exact timing is somewhat uncertain, it is probable that the system will become a hurricane early next week. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted higher than the previous advisory beyond 48 h, but it is below or near the model consensus at all times.

Little change was made to the NHC track forecast. The depression appears to be moving generally west-northwestward near 9 kt. In general, the system should continue west-northwestward for the next couple of days, with some slight fluctuations in its track possible tonight and tomorrow as the center consolidates. A weakness in the subtropical ridge is expected to develop by the middle of next week that could steer the cyclone more toward the northwest. The guidance is in very good agreement on this general scenario, though confidence in the forecast will be somewhat low until the system becomes a little better organized and strengthens. The official forecast is based primarily on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.

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