There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
None.
None.
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 35.5 West. The depression is moving toward the westnorthwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expect over the next several days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm by Tuesday and it could become a hurricane in a few days.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 35.5 West. The depression is moving toward the westnorthwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expect over the next several days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm by Tuesday and it could become a hurricane in a few days.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
The depression remains poorly organized and elongated from northeast-to-southwest. Convection mainly consists of small curved but fragmented bands in the southern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged as a result, so the initial intensity will also remain unchanged at 30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 295/09 kt. The ridge to the north and east of the tropical depression is forecast to remain intact for the next 5 days, keeping the cyclone on a general west-northwestward track through 72 hours, followed by a northwestward motion toward the weakness in the ridge on days 4 and 5. The latest NHC guidance remains in very good agreement on this developing track scenario and, thus, no significant changes were made to the previous advisory track.
Due to the negative influence of the long low-level westerly fetch associated with the monsoon trough that the cyclone is embedded within, it will likely another 24 hours or so for the low-level wind field to become better organized. However, once that occurs, environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for steady strengthening on days 2-4, followed by gradual weakening on ay 5 due to increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory forecast, and lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance envelope.
The depression remains poorly organized and elongated from northeast-to-southwest. Convection mainly consists of small curved but fragmented bands in the southern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged as a result, so the initial intensity will also remain unchanged at 30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 295/09 kt. The ridge to the north and east of the tropical depression is forecast to remain intact for the next 5 days, keeping the cyclone on a general west-northwestward track through 72 hours, followed by a northwestward motion toward the weakness in the ridge on days 4 and 5. The latest NHC guidance remains in very good agreement on this developing track scenario and, thus, no significant changes were made to the previous advisory track.
Due to the negative influence of the long low-level westerly fetch associated with the monsoon trough that the cyclone is embedded within, it will likely another 24 hours or so for the low-level wind field to become better organized. However, once that occurs, environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for steady strengthening on days 2-4, followed by gradual weakening on ay 5 due to increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory forecast, and lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance envelope.
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