There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 36.4 West. The depression is moving toward the westnorthwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the west or westnorthwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic is expected through Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight, and it could strengthen to a hurricane on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

Convective banding features are generally limited to the southern semicircle of the circulation with the center exposed just to the north. A recent ASCAT pass indicated that the strongest winds--up to 30 kt--were primarily located in the southerly and southwesterly monsoonal flow trailing the depression, although some stronger winds are beginning to develop just west of the center. Light-to- moderate northerly shear is currently affecting the depression, but this shear is expected to decrease during the next 24-48 hours. In addition, global model fields indicate that the cyclone should become increasingly separated from the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Steady strengthening is anticipated for much of the forecast period, and the NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA aid and the IVCN intensity consensus. This new forecast is a little higher than the previous prediction, especially on days 3 through 5. There are two main points that suggest this forecast could potentially go even higher in later forecast cycles: 1. the HWRF model shows more significant strengthening at the latter part of the period, bringing the system to major hurricane strength, and 2. the SHIPS Rapid Intensification guidance indicates that there is a 50-50 chance that the system will strengthen by at least 65 kt over the next 3 days, which is 9-10 times higher than the climatological mean. The depression is moving west-northwestward (290/9 kt) to the south of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central subtropical Atlantic. This feature should continue to drive the cyclone westward or west-northwestward for the next 2-3 days. After that time, the mid-level high is expected to shift northward and elongate, and the potentially intensifying hurricane is likely to acquire more poleward motion, moving northwestward and a little slower on days 3-5. Most of the track models are clustered close together, except for the HWRF which has a trajectory farther to the south and west. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit westward compared to the previous prediction, close to the GFS-ECMWF consensus but not as far to the left as the latest TVCA and HCCA solutions.