There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 46.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the westnorthwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westnorthwest to northwest track is anticipated during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast for the next several days, and Teddy is likely to become a hurricane late today and could reach major hurricane strength in a few days.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

ropical storm appears to have gotten better organized overnight, with deeper convection near the center and an increase in banding features. The initial wind speed is nudged upward to 50 kt, a little lower than the subjective Dvorak estimates alone would indicate since they have been running a little hot for this storm. While there are no signs of a true inner core yet, the shear is quite low at present, and Teddy should have several days in a low or moderate shear environment over warm waters to strengthen. Thus, the new forecast is raised from the previous one and is closest to a blend of the Florida State Superensemble and the NOAA corrected- consensus guidance. Teddy bears watching in the long range for category 4 strength, but regardless of the details, all of the guidance show it becoming a classical large and powerful September hurricane. The storm has turned west-northwestward tonight, or 295/10 kt. Teddy remains in a well-defined steering current for the next several days on the southwestern edge of the central Atlantic ridge, causing a west-northwest to northwest track through the end of the forecast. While the guidance is in very good agreement, there's been a rightward shift of almost all the aids, perhaps due to more upper-level westerly flow than the last cycle. The NHC track forecast is shifted eastward but lies on the western side of the guidance envelope.

Teddy's structure is slowly improving. Visible and IR imagery indicate that inner-core convection has increased, despite the continued presence of dry slots. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support the initial intensity of 55 kt.

Teddy is still heading west-northwestward for the moment with a forward speed estimate of 11 kt. Teddy will likely turn northwestward today and continue steadily moving northwestward along the southwest periphery of a ridge over the central Atlantic for the next several days. In fact, all available guidance indicates that once it makes that northwestward turn, Teddy will barely deviate from its heading or forward speed for the rest of the week. The latest NHC track forecast is virtually identical to the previous one. The model spread is smaller than usual and confidence in the track forecast is high. Teddy's low shear and warm SST environment should be conducive for further strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast is largely unchanged. Some dry air in the environment could restrict Teddy's intensification rate, but is not expected to prevent Teddy from becoming a hurricane later today or tonight. Continued strengthening is expected thereafter and Teddy is forecast to become a major hurricane within the next few days. On the whole, the intensity guidance is a little lower at the longer-range times, so the NHC forecast at days 4 and 5 is at the very top end of the guidance. I'd rather see a more consistent signal from the models before making a larger change to the forecast, especially given the impressive depiction of Teddy in the global model forecasts at that time.

The 34 kt wind radii were expanded to the northwest of Teddy based on data from an 1136 UTC ASCAT-A overpass.