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FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Teddy
LOCATED
1250 MI E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WINDS
40 MPH
PRESSURE
1004 MB
MOVING
W AT 14 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020
TEDDY POISED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 42.8 West. Teddy is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a westward motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slightly slower westnorthwestward motion tonight and Tuesday. A turn toward the northwest and a further decrease in forward speed is forecast by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Teddy is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday night.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 42.8 West. Teddy is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a westward motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slightly slower westnorthwestward motion tonight and Tuesday. A turn toward the northwest and a further decrease in forward speed is forecast by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Teddy is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday night.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

ely 1156 UTC ASCAT-A pass was very helpful in locating the center of Teddy, which was farther south and west than previously estimated. Satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized, with the center located near the northern edge of a curved convective band. Based on the ASCAT data and the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB and SAB, the intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 270/12. Despite the adjustment to the center position, the overall track forecast reasoning has not changed. Teddy will be steered by a deep-layer ridge located over the central Atlantic, which should result in a west-northwestward motion resuming by tonight. The ridge is forecast to shift eastward with time, and Teddy is forecast to turn more northwestward in a couple of days around the western edge of the ridge. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted about a degree to the left of the previous NHC prediction, largely due to the adjustment in the initial position, and lies near the consensus aids and the middle of the guidance envelope.

Teddy will be moving through a favorable environment for intensification for the next several days, with SSTs increasing along the forecast track and shear remaining relatively low. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, showing Teddy becoming a hurricane in 36 hours and reaching major hurricane strength in 4 to 5 days. This forecast is close to IVCN through the first 48 hours and then trends toward the higher HCCA guidance after that time.

ely 1156 UTC ASCAT-A pass was very helpful in locating the center of Teddy, which was farther south and west than previously estimated. Satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized, with the center located near the northern edge of a curved convective band. Based on the ASCAT data and the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB and SAB, the intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 270/12. Despite the adjustment to the center position, the overall track forecast reasoning has not changed. Teddy will be steered by a deep-layer ridge located over the central Atlantic, which should result in a west-northwestward motion resuming by tonight. The ridge is forecast to shift eastward with time, and Teddy is forecast to turn more northwestward in a couple of days around the western edge of the ridge. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted about a degree to the left of the previous NHC prediction, largely due to the adjustment in the initial position, and lies near the consensus aids and the middle of the guidance envelope.

Teddy will be moving through a favorable environment for intensification for the next several days, with SSTs increasing along the forecast track and shear remaining relatively low. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, showing Teddy becoming a hurricane in 36 hours and reaching major hurricane strength in 4 to 5 days. This forecast is close to IVCN through the first 48 hours and then trends toward the higher HCCA guidance after that time.

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