FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Depression Twenty
LOCATED
535 MI S OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
35 MPH
PRESSURE
1007 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 14 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at
Tropical depression forms over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None

None

At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 8.3 North, longitude 24.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight and a hurricane in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 8.3 North, longitude 24.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight and a hurricane in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

The area of low pressure located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic that NHC has been monitoring has now become a tropical depression, the twentieth tropical cyclone of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Satellite images indicate that the system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that have become fairly well organized around the center. An ASCAT-A pass from a few hours ago indicated that the system now has a well-defined circulation and that the radius of maximum wind is 30-40 n mi north of the center. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the ASCAT data and the T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The minimum pressure of 1007 mb is partially based on data from a ship report that passed near the depression.

Based on satellite fixes, the depression appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt. The system is currently located on the south side of a deep-layer ridge, and that feature should keep the cyclone on a west-northwest track during the next couple of days. After that time, the models show a mid- to upper-level low developing over the central tropical Atlantic, which erodes the western portion of the ridge. This change in the steering flow should cause the system to turn northwestward on Friday and then northward toward the end of the forecast period. Although the models generally agree on the evolution of the large-scale pattern, there are notable differences in the details, which leads to a fair amount of spread concerning when and where the turn to the north occurs. The GFS is farthest east while the ECMWF shows the westernmost solution. The NHC track forecast lies between those models and is near the TVCA multi-model consensus.

The depression is expected to remain in conducive environmental conditions for strengthening during the next 2 or 3 days. During that time period, the storm is forecast to move over 28-29 deg C waters while embedded within an airmass of high mid-level moisture and very low wind shear (less than 10 kt). Therefore, steady strengthening seems likely, and the NHC forecast brings the system to a tropical storm by tonight and a hurricane in a couple of days. Beyond a few days, however, the models show a pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and a notably drier atmosphere. These unfavorable conditions should end the opportunity for strengthening and promote a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is a near a blend of the HCCA, IVCN, and IVDR consensus models.

The cloud pattern continues to exhibit a large circulation with numerous curved bands surrounding the center. The strongest thunderstorms remain on the system's west side. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have both increased to 2.5/35 kt, and on that basis, the cyclone has been upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm.

Victor is still on a west-northwest course at about 11 kt. There has been little change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone is expected to continue west-northwestward during the next couple of days as it remains steered by the flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. By late Friday, however, the models show the western periphery of the ridge being eroded due to a mid- to upper-level low over the subtropical central Atlantic. As a result, the cyclone should turn northwestward by Friday night and then northward late this weekend or early next week. There remains a fair amount of spread in the timing and location of the northward turn with the GFS and HWRF still on the right side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF showing the slowest and westernmost solution. Overall, the consensus models have not changed much and neither has the official track forecast.

The storm is expected to remain in conducive environmental conditions for strengthening during the next couple of days. During that time period, Victor is forecast to move over 28-29 deg C waters while embedded within a moist airmass with very low wind shear (less than 10 kt). Rapid intensification sometimes occurs when conditions are this favorable, however, since the storm is broad and does not yet have an inner core, gradual strengthening seems more reasonable. The NHC forecast brings Victor to hurricane intensity in 36 hours. In a few days, however, the models show a pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and a notably drier atmosphere. These unfavorable conditions should end the opportunity for strengthening and promote a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and remains near a blend of the HCCA, IVCN, and IVDR consensus models.

The area of low pressure located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic that NHC has been monitoring has now become a tropical depression, the twentieth tropical cyclone of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Satellite images indicate that the system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that have become fairly well organized around the center. An ASCAT-A pass from a few hours ago indicated that the system now has a well-defined circulation and that the radius of maximum wind is 30-40 n mi north of the center. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the ASCAT data and the T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The minimum pressure of 1007 mb is partially based on data from a ship report that passed near the depression.

Based on satellite fixes, the depression appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt. The system is currently located on the south side of a deep-layer ridge, and that feature should keep the cyclone on a west-northwest track during the next couple of days. After that time, the models show a mid- to upper-level low developing over the central tropical Atlantic, which erodes the western portion of the ridge. This change in the steering flow should cause the system to turn northwestward on Friday and then northward toward the end of the forecast period. Although the models generally agree on the evolution of the large-scale pattern, there are notable differences in the details, which leads to a fair amount of spread concerning when and where the turn to the north occurs. The GFS is farthest east while the ECMWF shows the westernmost solution. The NHC track forecast lies between those models and is near the TVCA multi-model consensus.

The depression is expected to remain in conducive environmental conditions for strengthening during the next 2 or 3 days. During that time period, the storm is forecast to move over 28-29 deg C waters while embedded within an airmass of high mid-level moisture and very low wind shear (less than 10 kt). Therefore, steady strengthening seems likely, and the NHC forecast brings the system to a tropical storm by tonight and a hurricane in a couple of days. Beyond a few days, however, the models show a pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and a notably drier atmosphere. These unfavorable conditions should end the opportunity for strengthening and promote a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is a near a blend of the HCCA, IVCN, and IVDR consensus models.

The cloud pattern continues to exhibit a large circulation with numerous curved bands surrounding the center. The strongest thunderstorms remain on the system's west side. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have both increased to 2.5/35 kt, and on that basis, the cyclone has been upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm.

Victor is still on a west-northwest course at about 11 kt. There has been little change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone is expected to continue west-northwestward during the next couple of days as it remains steered by the flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. By late Friday, however, the models show the western periphery of the ridge being eroded due to a mid- to upper-level low over the subtropical central Atlantic. As a result, the cyclone should turn northwestward by Friday night and then northward late this weekend or early next week. There remains a fair amount of spread in the timing and location of the northward turn with the GFS and HWRF still on the right side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF showing the slowest and westernmost solution. Overall, the consensus models have not changed much and neither has the official track forecast.

The storm is expected to remain in conducive environmental conditions for strengthening during the next couple of days. During that time period, Victor is forecast to move over 28-29 deg C waters while embedded within a moist airmass with very low wind shear (less than 10 kt). Rapid intensification sometimes occurs when conditions are this favorable, however, since the storm is broad and does not yet have an inner core, gradual strengthening seems more reasonable. The NHC forecast brings Victor to hurricane intensity in 36 hours. In a few days, however, the models show a pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and a notably drier atmosphere. These unfavorable conditions should end the opportunity for strengthening and promote a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and remains near a blend of the HCCA, IVCN, and IVDR consensus models.

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