FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Depression Victor
LOCATED
950 MI W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
35 MPH
PRESSURE
1007 MB
MOVING
NW AT 14 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021
Victor still holding on as a tropical cyclone.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 38.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Victor could become a remnant low during that time. The system is then forecast to dissipate by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 38.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Victor could become a remnant low during that time. The system is then forecast to dissipate by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Victor was about out of time as a tropical cyclone, but a recent burst of deep convection about 60 n mi northeast of its center saved it from being declared a remnant low this afternoon. The cyclone continues to struggle with dry air and strong southwesterly shear. Scatterometer overpasses missed Victor today, so the initial advisory intensity of 30 kt is based on the latest CI-value from the TAFB Dvorak estimate.

The depression is moving northwest, or 310/12 kt in the flow to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. This general motion is forecast to continue until Victor dissipates in a few days. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various multimodel track consensus solutions.

Victor refused to succumb to the strong shear and dry air over the past 24 h. However, these hostile conditions are not forecast to abate over the cyclone for the foreseeable future. Therefore, the depression should struggle to maintain persistent deep convection, and the cyclone could degenerate to a remnant low at any time over the next couple of days. The global model guidance is in good agreement that Victor should gradually weaken early this week, and open into a tough of low pressure by Tuesday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, except for the timing of the system becoming a remnant low.

Victor was about out of time as a tropical cyclone, but a recent burst of deep convection about 60 n mi northeast of its center saved it from being declared a remnant low this afternoon. The cyclone continues to struggle with dry air and strong southwesterly shear. Scatterometer overpasses missed Victor today, so the initial advisory intensity of 30 kt is based on the latest CI-value from the TAFB Dvorak estimate.

The depression is moving northwest, or 310/12 kt in the flow to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. This general motion is forecast to continue until Victor dissipates in a few days. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various multimodel track consensus solutions.

Victor refused to succumb to the strong shear and dry air over the past 24 h. However, these hostile conditions are not forecast to abate over the cyclone for the foreseeable future. Therefore, the depression should struggle to maintain persistent deep convection, and the cyclone could degenerate to a remnant low at any time over the next couple of days. The global model guidance is in good agreement that Victor should gradually weaken early this week, and open into a tough of low pressure by Tuesday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, except for the timing of the system becoming a remnant low.

Partners of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network include:  WDNA (Miami), WFIT (Melbourne), WMFE (Orlando), WFSU (Tallahassee), WGCU (Fort Myers), WJCT (Jacksonville), WKGC (Panama City), WLRN (Miami), WMNF (Tampa-Sarasota), WQCS (Fort Pierce), WUFT (Gainesville-Ocala), WUSF (Tampa), WUWF (Pensacola) and Florida Public Media.

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

(352) 392-5551

Loading...
linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram