FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Depression Victor
LOCATED
1080 MI W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
35 MPH
PRESSURE
1007 MB
MOVING
NW AT 12 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021
Victor still a sheared tropical depression.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 40.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Victor is forecast to become a remnant low by late Monday and dissipate on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 40.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Victor is forecast to become a remnant low by late Monday and dissipate on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Despite persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear, Victor has managed to maintain an area of deep convection to the northeast of its low-level center through the morning hours. The latest objective and subjective satellite estimates range from 30-35 kt. However, an ASCAT-A pass from 1110 UTC indicates the increasingly elongated center of Victor is about 45 n mi south of previous estimates, which puts the center farther away from the edge of the convective overcast. Although a few 35-kt ASCAT wind vectors are noted, these retrievals are collocated with the most intense convection and appear artificially high when compared to the surrounding 20 to 30-kt wind field. Thus, the initial intensity of Victor is held at 30 kt for this advisory.

The SHIPS guidance indicates 15-20 kt of vertical wind shear will persist over Victor today, with even stronger shear expected on Monday. Additionally, the dry mid-level environment that Victor is embedded within appears unfavorable for sustaining deep convection. Therefore, gradual weakening is expected early this week, and Victor is forecast to lose its convection and degenerate into a remnant low by late Monday. Another plausible scenario is that Victor's low-level center continues to lose definition and the system opens up into a trough with the next couple of days. Either way, Victor does not appear to have much of a future. A subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic is steering Victor northwestward, or 310/10 kt. A northwestward motion is expected to continue through dissipation as Victor moves around the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. Although the track reasoning has not changed, the official NHC forecast track lies to the left of the previous advisory due to the center relocation described above.

Despite persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear, Victor has managed to maintain an area of deep convection to the northeast of its low-level center through the morning hours. The latest objective and subjective satellite estimates range from 30-35 kt. However, an ASCAT-A pass from 1110 UTC indicates the increasingly elongated center of Victor is about 45 n mi south of previous estimates, which puts the center farther away from the edge of the convective overcast. Although a few 35-kt ASCAT wind vectors are noted, these retrievals are collocated with the most intense convection and appear artificially high when compared to the surrounding 20 to 30-kt wind field. Thus, the initial intensity of Victor is held at 30 kt for this advisory.

The SHIPS guidance indicates 15-20 kt of vertical wind shear will persist over Victor today, with even stronger shear expected on Monday. Additionally, the dry mid-level environment that Victor is embedded within appears unfavorable for sustaining deep convection. Therefore, gradual weakening is expected early this week, and Victor is forecast to lose its convection and degenerate into a remnant low by late Monday. Another plausible scenario is that Victor's low-level center continues to lose definition and the system opens up into a trough with the next couple of days. Either way, Victor does not appear to have much of a future. A subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic is steering Victor northwestward, or 310/10 kt. A northwestward motion is expected to continue through dissipation as Victor moves around the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. Although the track reasoning has not changed, the official NHC forecast track lies to the left of the previous advisory due to the center relocation described above.

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