FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Depression Victor
LOCATED
1300 MI W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
30 MPH
PRESSURE
1009 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 14 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021
Victor expected to vanish later today.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 43.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continued through today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Victor is expected to become a remnant low later today and dissipate by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 43.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continued through today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Victor is expected to become a remnant low later today and dissipate by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

Strong southerly vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt along with entrainment of very dry mid-level air (less than 40 percent relative humidity) has continued to take its toll on Victor. Deep convection has been weakening during the past couple of hours and is now displaced more than 100 nmi north and northeast of the elongated low-level center. The shear is forecast by the global models to increase to more than 30 kt in the next 6-12 hours, while the surrounding environment becomes drier and more stable. As a result, the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today and likely dissipate by Tuesday, if not sooner.

Victor is moving west-northwestward or 300/12 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue through today based on the latest NHC model guidance. As a result, no significant changes were made to the previous track forecast.

Victor is no longer a tropical cyclone. A timely 1048 UTC ASCAT-A pass confirms that Victor does not have a closed surface circulation. Since the system has degenerated into a trough of low pressure over the central Atlantic, this will be the final NHC advisory on Victor. An area of 20 to 22-kt scatterometer winds is noted well to the northeast of the trough axis, but these winds should diminish through tonight as the trough dampens and the remnants move west-northwestward. Hostile environmental conditions, including strong southerly shear and very dry mid-level air, will inhibit any redevelopment of this system.

Additional information on the remnants of Victor can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Strong southerly vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt along with entrainment of very dry mid-level air (less than 40 percent relative humidity) has continued to take its toll on Victor. Deep convection has been weakening during the past couple of hours and is now displaced more than 100 nmi north and northeast of the elongated low-level center. The shear is forecast by the global models to increase to more than 30 kt in the next 6-12 hours, while the surrounding environment becomes drier and more stable. As a result, the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today and likely dissipate by Tuesday, if not sooner.

Victor is moving west-northwestward or 300/12 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue through today based on the latest NHC model guidance. As a result, no significant changes were made to the previous track forecast.

Victor is no longer a tropical cyclone. A timely 1048 UTC ASCAT-A pass confirms that Victor does not have a closed surface circulation. Since the system has degenerated into a trough of low pressure over the central Atlantic, this will be the final NHC advisory on Victor. An area of 20 to 22-kt scatterometer winds is noted well to the northeast of the trough axis, but these winds should diminish through tonight as the trough dampens and the remnants move west-northwestward. Hostile environmental conditions, including strong southerly shear and very dry mid-level air, will inhibit any redevelopment of this system.

Additional information on the remnants of Victor can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

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