FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Victor
LOCATED
850 MI WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
50 MPH
PRESSURE
1001 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 13 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021
Victor continues to weaken over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 36.3 West. Victor is moving toward the west northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn toward the northwest over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Victor is now forecast to become a remnant low by Monday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 36.3 West. Victor is moving toward the west northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn toward the northwest over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Victor is now forecast to become a remnant low by Monday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

Victor's satellite appearance has continued to degrade this morning with the closest convection now located more than 150 nmi northeast of the fully exposed low-level circulation center. Thus, Victor no longer technically meets the convective criterion of a tropical cyclone. However, tropical cyclone status is being maintained for this advisory out of continuity with the previous advisory and just in case a burst of deep convection redevelops later today near the still-well-defined low-level circulation center. Victor's intensity has been lowered to 45 kt based on a subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate of CI3.0/45 kt from TAFB, and the typical decay rate and spin down of a non-convective vortex over open water.

The motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 300/11 kt. Victor is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge for the next 72-96 hours or until dissipation occurs. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models.

Deep-layer south-southwesterly vertical wind shear of around 20 kt and entrainment of dry mid-level air have taken their toll on Victor. These unfavorable environmental parameters are expected to worsen, resulting in continued weakening throughout the forecast period. Therefore, Victor is forecast to become a tropical depression by Sunday, degenerate into a remnant low by Monday, and dissipate by Wednesday. However, the current weakening trend will be hastened if organized convection does not return within the next 12 hours. The new official intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, and is also lower than most of the intensity guidance due to Victor's aforementioned severely degraded convective pattern.

Victor's satellite appearance has continued to degrade this morning with the closest convection now located more than 150 nmi northeast of the fully exposed low-level circulation center. Thus, Victor no longer technically meets the convective criterion of a tropical cyclone. However, tropical cyclone status is being maintained for this advisory out of continuity with the previous advisory and just in case a burst of deep convection redevelops later today near the still-well-defined low-level circulation center. Victor's intensity has been lowered to 45 kt based on a subjective Dvorak current intensity estimate of CI3.0/45 kt from TAFB, and the typical decay rate and spin down of a non-convective vortex over open water.

The motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 300/11 kt. Victor is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge for the next 72-96 hours or until dissipation occurs. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models.

Deep-layer south-southwesterly vertical wind shear of around 20 kt and entrainment of dry mid-level air have taken their toll on Victor. These unfavorable environmental parameters are expected to worsen, resulting in continued weakening throughout the forecast period. Therefore, Victor is forecast to become a tropical depression by Sunday, degenerate into a remnant low by Monday, and dissipate by Wednesday. However, the current weakening trend will be hastened if organized convection does not return within the next 12 hours. The new official intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, and is also lower than most of the intensity guidance due to Victor's aforementioned severely degraded convective pattern.

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