FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Victor
LOCATED
905 MI W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
40 MPH
PRESSURE
1005 MB
MOVING
NW AT 12 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021
Victor barely holding on as a tropical cyclone.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 37.2 West. Victor is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Victor could become a remnant low by tonight. The system is then forecast to dissipate by Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 37.2 West. Victor is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Victor could become a remnant low by tonight. The system is then forecast to dissipate by Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Strong southwesterly shear and entrainment of dry air have taken their toll on Victor. The deep convection and the remnant mid-level core has been stripped away from the cyclone's low-level circulation, and is now more than 250 n mi northeast of Victor's center. The most recent UW-CIMMS shear analysis indicates the shear magnitude is about 30 kt over the center of the cyclone, and nearly 50 kt just to its north. The initial intensity is being lowered to 35 kt for this advisory based on the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. However, this value could be generous.

Victor's vector is 305/10 kt. This motion is expected to continue until the system dissipates, as the cyclone is steered in the flow to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. The latest NHC track forecast is just slightly to the left of the previous one, and lies on the western side of the guidance envelope to accommodate the shallow nature of the circulation.

The strong shear is not forecast to abate over the cyclone for the foreseeable future and very dry, African dust-laden air lies in the path of Victor. Therefore, it is unlikely that organized deep convection will redevelop near the center of the cyclone. Because of this, Victor is now expected to become a remnant low by tonight. The remnant low is forecast by the global models to open into a trough in 60 h. Due to the quick weakening that has been observed, the latest NHC intensity forecast was lowered through the first 12 h, and then remains the same as the previous forecast beyond that time frame.

Strong southwesterly shear and entrainment of dry air have taken their toll on Victor. The deep convection and the remnant mid-level core has been stripped away from the cyclone's low-level circulation, and is now more than 250 n mi northeast of Victor's center. The most recent UW-CIMMS shear analysis indicates the shear magnitude is about 30 kt over the center of the cyclone, and nearly 50 kt just to its north. The initial intensity is being lowered to 35 kt for this advisory based on the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB. However, this value could be generous.

Victor's vector is 305/10 kt. This motion is expected to continue until the system dissipates, as the cyclone is steered in the flow to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. The latest NHC track forecast is just slightly to the left of the previous one, and lies on the western side of the guidance envelope to accommodate the shallow nature of the circulation.

The strong shear is not forecast to abate over the cyclone for the foreseeable future and very dry, African dust-laden air lies in the path of Victor. Therefore, it is unlikely that organized deep convection will redevelop near the center of the cyclone. Because of this, Victor is now expected to become a remnant low by tonight. The remnant low is forecast by the global models to open into a trough in 60 h. Due to the quick weakening that has been observed, the latest NHC intensity forecast was lowered through the first 12 h, and then remains the same as the previous forecast beyond that time frame.

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