FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Victor
LOCATED
585 MI SW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
60 MPH
PRESSURE
997 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 12 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021
Victor strengthens over the tropical eastern Atlantic.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None

None

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 30.7 West. Victor is moving toward the west northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west northwest to northwest motion over the eastern tropical Atlantic is expected through the weekend.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. However, a weakening trend is expected to begin over the weekend. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 30.7 West. Victor is moving toward the west northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west northwest to northwest motion over the eastern tropical Atlantic is expected through the weekend.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. However, a weakening trend is expected to begin over the weekend. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

Satellite imagery shows that Victor has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with the convective banding becoming better defined near the center in the northeastern semicircle. Recent ASCAT data showed winds of 45-47 kt about 70 n mi north of the center, and based on the likelihood of some undersampling the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt. Although the scatterometer showed a stronger storm, the data suggested the system has not yet formed a well-defined inner core.

The initial motion is now 300/10 kt. Victor is expected to continue west-northwestward for another 24 h or so on the south side of a deep-layer ridge over the subtropical eastern Atlantic. After that time, a developing mid- to upper-level low over the central Atlantic is expected to erode the western portion of the ridge. As a result, Victor is expected to turn northwestward by the weekend and then northward by early next week when it is forecast to move in the flow between the ridge and the low. The guidance has changed little since the previous advisory, with the HWRF remaining a significant outlier to the east. Thus, the new forecast track is a little to the west of the various consensus aids that include the HWRF. The new forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast.

Victor should remain in a favorable environment for the next 24 h or so, and the intensity forecast shows more strengthening during that time, After that, the upper-level low should cause moderate to strong southwesterly shear over the storm, and by the end of the forecast period it will be moving into a drier air mass. This combination should cause Victor to steadily weaken after 24 h. The new NHC forecast has some adjustments from the previous forecast, and it now calls for the cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 120 h. The intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance through 48-60 h, and thereafter is close to the intensity consensus.<

Satellite imagery shows that Victor has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with the convective banding becoming better defined near the center in the northeastern semicircle. Recent ASCAT data showed winds of 45-47 kt about 70 n mi north of the center, and based on the likelihood of some undersampling the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt. Although the scatterometer showed a stronger storm, the data suggested the system has not yet formed a well-defined inner core.

The initial motion is now 300/10 kt. Victor is expected to continue west-northwestward for another 24 h or so on the south side of a deep-layer ridge over the subtropical eastern Atlantic. After that time, a developing mid- to upper-level low over the central Atlantic is expected to erode the western portion of the ridge. As a result, Victor is expected to turn northwestward by the weekend and then northward by early next week when it is forecast to move in the flow between the ridge and the low. The guidance has changed little since the previous advisory, with the HWRF remaining a significant outlier to the east. Thus, the new forecast track is a little to the west of the various consensus aids that include the HWRF. The new forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast.

Victor should remain in a favorable environment for the next 24 h or so, and the intensity forecast shows more strengthening during that time, After that, the upper-level low should cause moderate to strong southwesterly shear over the storm, and by the end of the forecast period it will be moving into a drier air mass. This combination should cause Victor to steadily weaken after 24 h. The new NHC forecast has some adjustments from the previous forecast, and it now calls for the cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 120 h. The intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance through 48-60 h, and thereafter is close to the intensity consensus.<

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