FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Victor
LOCATED
630 MI WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
60 MPH
PRESSURE
997 MB
MOVING
NW AT 15 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021
Victor moving northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 32.3 West. Victor is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A motion toward the west northwest and northwest is expected today, followed by a northwestward motion over the eastern tropical Atlantic over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening will be possible through tonight, followed by a slow weakening trend over the weekend. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 32.3 West. Victor is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A motion toward the west northwest and northwest is expected today, followed by a northwestward motion over the eastern tropical Atlantic over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening will be possible through tonight, followed by a slow weakening trend over the weekend. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

Infrared and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Victor has continued to become a little better organized, with a 0342Z AMSR2 overpass showing that a 75-percent-closed mid-level eye feature had formed. However, both data sources also revealed that a pronounced dry slot has formed in the southeastern quadrant. Upper-level outflow remains well established in all quadrants except to the south where it is somewhat restricted. Despite the slightly improved satellite signatures, subjective and objective intensity classifications have not changed since the previous advisory, so the intensity remains at 50 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 305/13 kt. Victor has made a slight jog toward the northwest, but this is likely a temporary motion due to redevelopment of the center farther into the convective cloud shield. The cyclone should resume a west-northwestward motion later today and maintain that motion for another day or so as Victor moves along the southwestern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge situated over the east-central Atlantic. The latest model runs continue to show a broad mid- to upper-level low developing over the central Atlantic to the west of Victor in the 24-72-h forecast period, which will act to erode the western portion of the ridge and create a deep-layer southerly flow pattern across the cyclone. As a result, Victor is forecast to turn northwestward by the weekend and then move northward by early next week. Owing to a more robust mid-/upper-level low forecast to develop than previously expected, the latest NHC track guidance has made a significant westward shift by at least 100 nmi at 72 h and nearly 200 nmi on days 4 and 5. This westward shift is due to Victor now forecast to weaken faster and become more vertically shallow, with the dominant steering flow shifting to low-level easterlies. The new NHC track forecast has also been shifted westward, but not as far west as the tightly packed consensus models, all of which lie well to the east of the westernmost GFS solution.

Victor is expected to remain in a somewhat favorable environment for the next 18 h or so, which should allow for at least some slight strengthening to occur. Thereafter, however, southwesterly deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to increase to 20-25 kt in 24 hours and 30-35 kt by 72 h. These hostile shear conditions, in conjunction with a drier air mass, should result in gradual weakening during the 24-120-h period, with Victor becoming a remnant low on day 5. The new official intensity forecast is a little below the previous advisory, but it is above the consensus intensity models ICON, HCCA, and FSSE, due to the recent development of the aforementioned primitive eye feature.

Since the last advisory, Victor's deep convection has become limited to the northern portion of its circulation. Convective outflow is limited to the south, which indicates that the changes in the structure of the tropical storm are due at least in part to southerly wind shear. Microwave and ASCAT data between 0800 and 1200 UTC also indicate that the center of Victor has become elongated, and may be trying to reform to the north, closer to the convection. Even with that reformation, an 1128 ASCAT-B overpass revealed that the center of Victor is located substantially south of previous estimates, which has necessitated a significant change to the track forecast.

With the new position, the initial motion estimate is now 295/13 kt. The tropical storm is still generally expected to turn northwestward over the weekend and then continue on that heading through early next week, steered by the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. Nearly all of the dynamical models are showing this turn occuring slightly later than earlier forecasts, which results in a track well to the west of the previous NHC forecast. Combined with the updated analysis of Victor's position, the new NHC forecast has been shifted over 100 n mi to the southwest by day 4. However, this is still on the far east side of the guidance envelope so additional changes to the track forecast might be needed this afternoon.

The aforementioned ASCAT data showed peak winds near 50 kt, which supports an intensity of 55 kt, assuming a little undersampling due to the resolution of the instrument. The intensity analysis is also supported by the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate. Despite the large changes to the track forecast, no change of note was made to the intensity forecast. Increasing shear and a dry surrounding environment should cause Victor to weaken during the next few days. Some models even indicate it could dissipate before the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is based on the intensity model consensus.<

Infrared and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Victor has continued to become a little better organized, with a 0342Z AMSR2 overpass showing that a 75-percent-closed mid-level eye feature had formed. However, both data sources also revealed that a pronounced dry slot has formed in the southeastern quadrant. Upper-level outflow remains well established in all quadrants except to the south where it is somewhat restricted. Despite the slightly improved satellite signatures, subjective and objective intensity classifications have not changed since the previous advisory, so the intensity remains at 50 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 305/13 kt. Victor has made a slight jog toward the northwest, but this is likely a temporary motion due to redevelopment of the center farther into the convective cloud shield. The cyclone should resume a west-northwestward motion later today and maintain that motion for another day or so as Victor moves along the southwestern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge situated over the east-central Atlantic. The latest model runs continue to show a broad mid- to upper-level low developing over the central Atlantic to the west of Victor in the 24-72-h forecast period, which will act to erode the western portion of the ridge and create a deep-layer southerly flow pattern across the cyclone. As a result, Victor is forecast to turn northwestward by the weekend and then move northward by early next week. Owing to a more robust mid-/upper-level low forecast to develop than previously expected, the latest NHC track guidance has made a significant westward shift by at least 100 nmi at 72 h and nearly 200 nmi on days 4 and 5. This westward shift is due to Victor now forecast to weaken faster and become more vertically shallow, with the dominant steering flow shifting to low-level easterlies. The new NHC track forecast has also been shifted westward, but not as far west as the tightly packed consensus models, all of which lie well to the east of the westernmost GFS solution.

Victor is expected to remain in a somewhat favorable environment for the next 18 h or so, which should allow for at least some slight strengthening to occur. Thereafter, however, southwesterly deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to increase to 20-25 kt in 24 hours and 30-35 kt by 72 h. These hostile shear conditions, in conjunction with a drier air mass, should result in gradual weakening during the 24-120-h period, with Victor becoming a remnant low on day 5. The new official intensity forecast is a little below the previous advisory, but it is above the consensus intensity models ICON, HCCA, and FSSE, due to the recent development of the aforementioned primitive eye feature.

Since the last advisory, Victor's deep convection has become limited to the northern portion of its circulation. Convective outflow is limited to the south, which indicates that the changes in the structure of the tropical storm are due at least in part to southerly wind shear. Microwave and ASCAT data between 0800 and 1200 UTC also indicate that the center of Victor has become elongated, and may be trying to reform to the north, closer to the convection. Even with that reformation, an 1128 ASCAT-B overpass revealed that the center of Victor is located substantially south of previous estimates, which has necessitated a significant change to the track forecast.

With the new position, the initial motion estimate is now 295/13 kt. The tropical storm is still generally expected to turn northwestward over the weekend and then continue on that heading through early next week, steered by the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. Nearly all of the dynamical models are showing this turn occuring slightly later than earlier forecasts, which results in a track well to the west of the previous NHC forecast. Combined with the updated analysis of Victor's position, the new NHC forecast has been shifted over 100 n mi to the southwest by day 4. However, this is still on the far east side of the guidance envelope so additional changes to the track forecast might be needed this afternoon.

The aforementioned ASCAT data showed peak winds near 50 kt, which supports an intensity of 55 kt, assuming a little undersampling due to the resolution of the instrument. The intensity analysis is also supported by the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate. Despite the large changes to the track forecast, no change of note was made to the intensity forecast. Increasing shear and a dry surrounding environment should cause Victor to weaken during the next few days. Some models even indicate it could dissipate before the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is based on the intensity model consensus.<

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