Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory 8

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 33.1 West. Vicky is moving toward the westnorthwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected overnight, followed by a westward motion starting late Wednesday, and a westsouthwestward motion by late Thursday.

Satellitederived winds indicate that xaximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is still forecast over the next few days, and the system could become a remannt low on Thursday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 33.1 West. Vicky is moving toward the westnorthwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected overnight, followed by a westward motion starting late Wednesday, and a westsouthwestward motion by late Thursday.

Satellitederived winds indicate that xaximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is still forecast over the next few days, and the system could become a remannt low on Thursday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

provided a surprise this evening, with scatterometer data showing a solid 45-kt in the northwestern quadrant of the storm. You would never guess it from the satellite images, which show a very sheared system that would at best support an 30-35 kt intensity, as indicated by the latest Dvorak estimates. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, higher than the last time but not really a true strengthening since conventional satellite data was a bit deceptive earlier. Despite Vicky holding its own, models are still showing the strong shear persisting, which should eventually cause weakening. The cyclone is likely to last longer than previously anticipated though with some upper-level divergence counteracting the effects of the shear, but Vicky is forecast gradually lose strength and decay in a remnant low in a couple of days, similar to the consensus guidance.

The storm continues to more west-northwestward, a little to the left of previous, at 290/10. Vicky should gradually turn westward tomorrow and west-southwestward later this week as it becomes a shallower cyclone. The new forecast is quite similar to the previous one, leaning on the northern side of the well-clustered guidance envelope since Vicky is persisting as a deeper cyclone for the moment. The only small change is to add a 72-hour forecast point as the remnants could linger for a while longer.

provided a surprise this evening, with scatterometer data showing a solid 45-kt in the northwestern quadrant of the storm. You would never guess it from the satellite images, which show a very sheared system that would at best support an 30-35 kt intensity, as indicated by the latest Dvorak estimates. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, higher than the last time but not really a true strengthening since conventional satellite data was a bit deceptive earlier. Despite Vicky holding its own, models are still showing the strong shear persisting, which should eventually cause weakening. The cyclone is likely to last longer than previously anticipated though with some upper-level divergence counteracting the effects of the shear, but Vicky is forecast gradually lose strength and decay in a remnant low in a couple of days, similar to the consensus guidance.

The storm continues to more west-northwestward, a little to the left of previous, at 290/10. Vicky should gradually turn westward tomorrow and west-southwestward later this week as it becomes a shallower cyclone. The new forecast is quite similar to the previous one, leaning on the northern side of the well-clustered guidance envelope since Vicky is persisting as a deeper cyclone for the moment. The only small change is to add a 72-hour forecast point as the remnants could linger for a while longer.