FLORIDA
STORMS
Subtropical Storm Wanda
LOCATED
935 MI W OF THE AZORES
WINDS
50 MPH
PRESSURE
987 MB
MOVING
ESE AT 16 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 900 AM GMT Sun Oct 31 2021
Wanda moving east-southeastward across the central Atlantic.. summary of 900 am gmt.
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Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None

None

At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 43.9 West. The storm is moving toward the east southeast near 16 mph (26 km/h) A turn toward the southeast at a slower forward speed is expected later today. A turn to the northeast or north is forecast to occur on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 43.9 West. The storm is moving toward the east southeast near 16 mph (26 km/h) A turn toward the southeast at a slower forward speed is expected later today. A turn to the northeast or north is forecast to occur on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

Satellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with Wanda has become better organized since the last advisory, with a convective band now wrapping more than halfway around the center. However, the cyclone remains embedded in a deep-layer baroclinic circulation, and based on this structure, the system is still a subtropical storm. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 40-50 kt range, and the intensity is set at a possibly conservative 45 kt.

The initial motion is a little slower toward the east-southeast at 105/14 kt. As mentioned in the previous advisory, a slower east-southeast to southeast motion is expected during the next day or so as Wanda moves with the deep-layer trough that it is embedded within. After that time, the trough is expected to cut off, and Wanda will likely meander on Monday before turning sharply northward or northeastward by the middle of next week when the system moves in the flow between the cut off low and a building ridge. By the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to turn northeastward in southwesterly mid-latitude flow. The new track guidance is similar to the previous guidance, but is a little slower after 72 h. Thus, the new forecast track is similar to the previous track and also slower in the later periods.

Given the increasing organization, it is likely that Wanda will strengthen some during the next 24 h. After that, the intensity guidance suggests little change in strength through 48 h as the cyclone moves over sea surface temperatures of 24 C. Beyond 48 h, gradual weakening is expected as Wanda moves over colder waters, with the system expected to become post-tropical due to a lack of convection by 120 h. It should be noted that the GFS and UKMET suggest the possibility that Wanda could transition into a tropical storm by 48 h. However, due to the expectation that the cyclone will continue to remain embedded in a cold upper-level trough, the intensity forecast will not explicitly call for tropical transition at this time.

Satellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with Wanda has become better organized since the last advisory, with a convective band now wrapping more than halfway around the center. However, the cyclone remains embedded in a deep-layer baroclinic circulation, and based on this structure, the system is still a subtropical storm. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 40-50 kt range, and the intensity is set at a possibly conservative 45 kt.

The initial motion is a little slower toward the east-southeast at 105/14 kt. As mentioned in the previous advisory, a slower east-southeast to southeast motion is expected during the next day or so as Wanda moves with the deep-layer trough that it is embedded within. After that time, the trough is expected to cut off, and Wanda will likely meander on Monday before turning sharply northward or northeastward by the middle of next week when the system moves in the flow between the cut off low and a building ridge. By the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to turn northeastward in southwesterly mid-latitude flow. The new track guidance is similar to the previous guidance, but is a little slower after 72 h. Thus, the new forecast track is similar to the previous track and also slower in the later periods.

Given the increasing organization, it is likely that Wanda will strengthen some during the next 24 h. After that, the intensity guidance suggests little change in strength through 48 h as the cyclone moves over sea surface temperatures of 24 C. Beyond 48 h, gradual weakening is expected as Wanda moves over colder waters, with the system expected to become post-tropical due to a lack of convection by 120 h. It should be noted that the GFS and UKMET suggest the possibility that Wanda could transition into a tropical storm by 48 h. However, due to the expectation that the cyclone will continue to remain embedded in a cold upper-level trough, the intensity forecast will not explicitly call for tropical transition at this time.

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