Subtropical Storm Wanda Advisory 5

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None

At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 44.1 West. The storm is moving toward the southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn back to the east southeast or east is expected on Monday, followed by a turn to the north or northeast on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

Dry air continues to wrap into the circulation of Wanda, and consequently, the system is only producing small fragmented bands of deep convection. An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago showed maximum winds of about 45 kt in the northwestern quadrant of the storm, and therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value. This intensity estimate is also in line with the satellite classification from TAFB.

After moving east-southeastward for much of the day, Wanda has abruptly turned southwestward with the latest initial motion estimated to be 215/7 kt. This erratic motion is related to the upper-level low that Wanda is co-located with. The storm is likely to turn back toward the east-southeast or east on Monday and then track to the northeast on Tuesday as the storm moves in the flow between the associated trough and a building ridge to its east. By Thursday and Friday, however, the models show another ridge building to the north and west of Wanda, and that should slow its northward progress and will likely cause the storm to turn eastward or southeastward again by the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward at days 4 and 5, trending toward the latest models.

Wanda is likely to remain fairly steady in strength during the next several days as dry air and relatively cool SSTs continue to affect the system. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one. Even though the storm's intensity is not expected to change much, it will likely transition to a tropical cyclone during the next day or so as it continues to separate from the nearby fronts and upper low.

Dry air continues to wrap into the circulation of Wanda, and consequently, the system is only producing small fragmented bands of deep convection. An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago showed maximum winds of about 45 kt in the northwestern quadrant of the storm, and therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value. This intensity estimate is also in line with the satellite classification from TAFB.

After moving east-southeastward for much of the day, Wanda has abruptly turned southwestward with the latest initial motion estimated to be 215/7 kt. This erratic motion is related to the upper-level low that Wanda is co-located with. The storm is likely to turn back toward the east-southeast or east on Monday and then track to the northeast on Tuesday as the storm moves in the flow between the associated trough and a building ridge to its east. By Thursday and Friday, however, the models show another ridge building to the north and west of Wanda, and that should slow its northward progress and will likely cause the storm to turn eastward or southeastward again by the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward at days 4 and 5, trending toward the latest models.

Wanda is likely to remain fairly steady in strength during the next several days as dry air and relatively cool SSTs continue to affect the system. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one. Even though the storm's intensity is not expected to change much, it will likely transition to a tropical cyclone during the next day or so as it continues to separate from the nearby fronts and upper low.