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At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 40.9 West. Wanda is moving toward the east northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and north northeast is expected today, followed by a generally northward motion at a slightly faster forward speed through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

Wanda has become a little better organized since yesterday evening with convection, albeit not very deep, now wrapping around the center of the storm. Apparently the vertical shear over the cyclone has relaxed somewhat, and the center is now more embedded within the convection. This implies that some strengthening has occurred and the intensity estimate is increased to 45 kt for this advisory. This is also in agreement with a subjective Dvorak satellite estimate from SAB. Interestingly, satellite-derived SST analyses indicate that Wanda is currently located over a small patch of warmer ocean waters, near 25 deg C.

The storm is moving a little faster toward the east-northeast, or at about 060/7 kt. During the next couple of days, Wanda is likely to remain embedded within a mid-tropospheric trough . A turn toward the north is expected during the next 48 to 60 hours while the system moves along the eastern portion of the trough. Later in the forecast period, a ridge building to the west and northwest of Wanda should force a turn toward the east and east-southeast. The official forecast has been shifted to the right of the previous NHC track at days 4 and 5, following the latest dynamical model consensus. It should be noted that the GFS model shows a track significantly farther south at this later time frame.

Although Wanda will soon be moving over cooler waters, the SHIPS, LGEM, and HCCA intensity guidance indicate that the system will strengthen a little more in the short term, and then more or less maintain its intensity for the next 48 hours or so. This is probably due to fairly low vertical shear and relatively cool upper-tropospheric temperatures during this time. Later, gradual weakening is likely, due to increased shear and cool waters. However baroclinic effects could at least partially offset the weakening process. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement with the corrected model consensus, HCCA, solution. Around 72 hours, simulated satellite imagery shows a loss of tropical cyclone-like cloud structure so the NHC forecast indicates a post-tropical phase by that time.

After the overnight burst of deep convection and associated improved organization, dry air has wrapped into the system from all quadrants and has temporarily eroded Wanda's inner-core convection. Despite the recent convective degradation, visible satellite imagery indicates that the cyclone's low-level circulation has improved, with well-defined, curved low-level cloud lines and shallow convection having become more evident. Based on improved low-level structure, the intensity estimate remains at 45 kt despite the overall loss of deep convection.

During the past 6 h, Wanda has made the expected sharp left-hand turn and is now moving northward, or 010/08 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Over the next couple of days, the latest model guidance is in excellent agreement that Wanda should remain embedded within a deep-layer trough, and gradually turn toward the north-northeast later today, followed by a northeastward motion tonight and Wednesday as the cyclone moves through the trough-to-ridge flow pattern. By 48-60 hours, the cyclone is forecast to move toward the east and east-southeast as a ridge builds to the northwest and west of Wanda. The new NHC official forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the middle of the simple- and corrected-consensus guidance envelope.

The aforementioned improved low-level structure should act to force new convection later today and especially tonight during the nocturnal convective maximum period. Thus, Wanda has another 24-36 h to strengthen while the system remains over marginally warm sea-surface temperatures (SST) near 23 deg C and within a relatively low vertical wind shear environment. Thereafter, slow but steady weakening is likely due to an increase in southwesterly wind shear, a decrease in mid-tropospheric moisture, and a decrease in SSTs. However, baroclinic effects associated with an approaching mid-tropospheric trough from the west could partially offset the weakening process. Wanda is expected become a post-tropical cyclone around 72 h, but this could be delayed if the baroclinic forcing on day 3 ends up stronger than currently expected. The new official intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous intensity forecast, and is close to an average of the intensity consensus models IVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.