FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Wanda
LOCATED
770 MI W OF THE AZORES
WINDS
50 MPH
PRESSURE
992 MB
MOVING
N AT 9 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 300 PM GMT Tue Nov 02 2021
Wanda moving northward over the northern Atlantic.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 40.6 West. Wanda is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should continue this morning. A turn toward the north northeast is expected this afternoon or evening, followed by a northeastward motion tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 35.6 North, longitude 40.6 West. Wanda is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should continue this morning. A turn toward the north northeast is expected this afternoon or evening, followed by a northeastward motion tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

After the overnight burst of deep convection and associated improved organization, dry air has wrapped into the system from all quadrants and has temporarily eroded Wanda's inner-core convection. Despite the recent convective degradation, visible satellite imagery indicates that the cyclone's low-level circulation has improved, with well-defined, curved low-level cloud lines and shallow convection having become more evident. Based on improved low-level structure, the intensity estimate remains at 45 kt despite the overall loss of deep convection.

During the past 6 h, Wanda has made the expected sharp left-hand turn and is now moving northward, or 010/08 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Over the next couple of days, the latest model guidance is in excellent agreement that Wanda should remain embedded within a deep-layer trough, and gradually turn toward the north-northeast later today, followed by a northeastward motion tonight and Wednesday as the cyclone moves through the trough-to-ridge flow pattern. By 48-60 hours, the cyclone is forecast to move toward the east and east-southeast as a ridge builds to the northwest and west of Wanda. The new NHC official forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the middle of the simple- and corrected-consensus guidance envelope.

The aforementioned improved low-level structure should act to force new convection later today and especially tonight during the nocturnal convective maximum period. Thus, Wanda has another 24-36 h to strengthen while the system remains over marginally warm sea-surface temperatures (SST) near 23 deg C and within a relatively low vertical wind shear environment. Thereafter, slow but steady weakening is likely due to an increase in southwesterly wind shear, a decrease in mid-tropospheric moisture, and a decrease in SSTs. However, baroclinic effects associated with an approaching mid-tropospheric trough from the west could partially offset the weakening process. Wanda is expected become a post-tropical cyclone around 72 h, but this could be delayed if the baroclinic forcing on day 3 ends up stronger than currently expected. The new official intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous intensity forecast, and is close to an average of the intensity consensus models IVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

Late-arriving 1201 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer data indicated that a small patch of 40-kt winds was located about 30 nmi east and southeast of the well-defined center. Owing to known undersampling by the scatterometer instrument for tropical cyclones that possess a small radius of maximum of winds (RMW), those 40-kt winds support the previous advisory intensity of 45 kt. That 45-kt intensity estimate has been maintained for this advisory based on Wanda having developed a small, closed eye-like feature in shallow convection, with a curved band of deeper convection having recently developed in the RMW where those 40-kt ASCAT surface winds were detected. Wanda's overall convective organization has improved with more and tighter curved low-level cloud lines now evident in visible satellite imagery.

The initial motion estimate is northward, or 010/07 kt. There remain no significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning through 60 h. Thereafter, however, the latest model guidance has made a significant southward shift in the track on days 3-5. For the next couple of days, Wanda is forecast to move slowly poleward ahead of an approaching mid- to upper-tropospheric trough. As the trough weakens and lifts out to the north of the cyclone on day 3, Wanda is expected to move slowly eastward before being forced southeastward to southward by a narrow shortwave ridge that is forecast to trail the aforementioned trough. The GFS and UKMET models show Wanda merging with a frontal system on day 4 and lifting out to the northeast, whereas the ECMWF drives the cyclone farther south ahead of the cold front and turns the system into a convective-free post-tropical cyclone on day 5. For now, the official track forecast remains similar to the previous advisory track through 60 h, and then shows Wanda turning sharply southeastward on day 4, which is well to the right of the previous forecast track. The cyclone is then forecast to lift out to the northeast on day 5 as an extratropical low pressure system after merging with a cold front. The official forecast track is similar to the tightly packed consensus models through 60 h, and then is to the left or north of the consensus aids in the 72-120-h period. There is lower-than-normal confidence in the forecast track after 72 h due to the major difference between the GFS and ECMWF model solutions.

Wanda's robust low-level circulation should be able to continue to mix out occasional dry air intrusions, allowing for inner-core convection to redevelop and resultant slight strengthening to occur during the next 24-48 h. However, if a band of moderate convection ends up developing around the aforementioned eye-like feature, then Wanda could strengthen a little more than currently forecast. By day 3 and beyond, slow weakening is expected due to a sharp increase in vertical wind shear and a decrease in mid-level moisture. Based on what now appears to be stronger baroclinic forcing in the 60-96-h period, the status of Wanda has been changed to a tropical cyclone on day 3, with the day 4 and 5 statuses indicating extratropical transition due to merger with a frontal system. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically just an update of the previous advisory forecast, and remains close to an average of the intensity consensus models IVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

After the overnight burst of deep convection and associated improved organization, dry air has wrapped into the system from all quadrants and has temporarily eroded Wanda's inner-core convection. Despite the recent convective degradation, visible satellite imagery indicates that the cyclone's low-level circulation has improved, with well-defined, curved low-level cloud lines and shallow convection having become more evident. Based on improved low-level structure, the intensity estimate remains at 45 kt despite the overall loss of deep convection.

During the past 6 h, Wanda has made the expected sharp left-hand turn and is now moving northward, or 010/08 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Over the next couple of days, the latest model guidance is in excellent agreement that Wanda should remain embedded within a deep-layer trough, and gradually turn toward the north-northeast later today, followed by a northeastward motion tonight and Wednesday as the cyclone moves through the trough-to-ridge flow pattern. By 48-60 hours, the cyclone is forecast to move toward the east and east-southeast as a ridge builds to the northwest and west of Wanda. The new NHC official forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the middle of the simple- and corrected-consensus guidance envelope.

The aforementioned improved low-level structure should act to force new convection later today and especially tonight during the nocturnal convective maximum period. Thus, Wanda has another 24-36 h to strengthen while the system remains over marginally warm sea-surface temperatures (SST) near 23 deg C and within a relatively low vertical wind shear environment. Thereafter, slow but steady weakening is likely due to an increase in southwesterly wind shear, a decrease in mid-tropospheric moisture, and a decrease in SSTs. However, baroclinic effects associated with an approaching mid-tropospheric trough from the west could partially offset the weakening process. Wanda is expected become a post-tropical cyclone around 72 h, but this could be delayed if the baroclinic forcing on day 3 ends up stronger than currently expected. The new official intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous intensity forecast, and is close to an average of the intensity consensus models IVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

Late-arriving 1201 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer data indicated that a small patch of 40-kt winds was located about 30 nmi east and southeast of the well-defined center. Owing to known undersampling by the scatterometer instrument for tropical cyclones that possess a small radius of maximum of winds (RMW), those 40-kt winds support the previous advisory intensity of 45 kt. That 45-kt intensity estimate has been maintained for this advisory based on Wanda having developed a small, closed eye-like feature in shallow convection, with a curved band of deeper convection having recently developed in the RMW where those 40-kt ASCAT surface winds were detected. Wanda's overall convective organization has improved with more and tighter curved low-level cloud lines now evident in visible satellite imagery.

The initial motion estimate is northward, or 010/07 kt. There remain no significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning through 60 h. Thereafter, however, the latest model guidance has made a significant southward shift in the track on days 3-5. For the next couple of days, Wanda is forecast to move slowly poleward ahead of an approaching mid- to upper-tropospheric trough. As the trough weakens and lifts out to the north of the cyclone on day 3, Wanda is expected to move slowly eastward before being forced southeastward to southward by a narrow shortwave ridge that is forecast to trail the aforementioned trough. The GFS and UKMET models show Wanda merging with a frontal system on day 4 and lifting out to the northeast, whereas the ECMWF drives the cyclone farther south ahead of the cold front and turns the system into a convective-free post-tropical cyclone on day 5. For now, the official track forecast remains similar to the previous advisory track through 60 h, and then shows Wanda turning sharply southeastward on day 4, which is well to the right of the previous forecast track. The cyclone is then forecast to lift out to the northeast on day 5 as an extratropical low pressure system after merging with a cold front. The official forecast track is similar to the tightly packed consensus models through 60 h, and then is to the left or north of the consensus aids in the 72-120-h period. There is lower-than-normal confidence in the forecast track after 72 h due to the major difference between the GFS and ECMWF model solutions.

Wanda's robust low-level circulation should be able to continue to mix out occasional dry air intrusions, allowing for inner-core convection to redevelop and resultant slight strengthening to occur during the next 24-48 h. However, if a band of moderate convection ends up developing around the aforementioned eye-like feature, then Wanda could strengthen a little more than currently forecast. By day 3 and beyond, slow weakening is expected due to a sharp increase in vertical wind shear and a decrease in mid-level moisture. Based on what now appears to be stronger baroclinic forcing in the 60-96-h period, the status of Wanda has been changed to a tropical cyclone on day 3, with the day 4 and 5 statuses indicating extratropical transition due to merger with a frontal system. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically just an update of the previous advisory forecast, and remains close to an average of the intensity consensus models IVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

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