FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Wanda
LOCATED
730 MI W OF THE AZORES
WINDS
50 MPH
PRESSURE
992 MB
MOVING
N AT 9 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 300 AM GMT Wed Nov 03 2021
Wanda moving northward with no change in strength.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 40.3 West. Wanda is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward to north northeastward motion should continue through early Thursday. An eastward motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated by late Thursday, followed by a faster southeastward motion by Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km), primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 40.3 West. Wanda is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward to north northeastward motion should continue through early Thursday. An eastward motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated by late Thursday, followed by a faster southeastward motion by Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km), primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

Bands of convection have continued to wax and wane around the center of Wanda over the past 6-12 hours, with a band currently located over the western portion of the cyclone. A timely 2320 UTC ASCAT-B overpass detected peak winds of around 40 kt and given the known undersampling of that instrument for small tropical cyclones, the 45-kt initial intensity is maintained. That is also supported by a recent SATCON intensity estimate of 42 kt. The ASCAT data did show that the area of tropical-storm-force winds has increased in size over the eastern semicircle and now extends outward up to about 80 n mi in that portion of the storm.

Wanda is moving northward or 010/8 kt. The cyclone should continue moving northward ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough during the next 24-36 hours. After that time however, the trough is expected to weaken and lift northward causing Wanda to slow down and turn eastward. After 48 hours, the track guidance has continued its southward shift when a narrow ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of the system. The NHC track forecast is again shifted southward in the 60 to 96 h time period. By late in the period, Wanda is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of yet another mid-latitude trough. There is a bit more confidence in the latest track prediction as the dynamical model guidance has come into a bit better agreement, however additional southwestward or westward adjustments during the middle portion of the forecast period could be required.

Little overall change in strength is anticipated over the next several days. As Wanda moves northward during the next day or so, it will be moving over slightly cooler waters which could cause the cyclone to struggle to produce deep convection. After day 2, there are indications of increasing shear, but a nearby baroclinic zone could help the system maintain its intensity. Later in the period, shear and decreasing mid-level relative humidity are likely to cause Wanda to become post-tropical, and by day 5 the guidance indicates Wanda will merge with a frontal boundary and become extratropical.

Bands of convection have continued to wax and wane around the center of Wanda over the past 6-12 hours, with a band currently located over the western portion of the cyclone. A timely 2320 UTC ASCAT-B overpass detected peak winds of around 40 kt and given the known undersampling of that instrument for small tropical cyclones, the 45-kt initial intensity is maintained. That is also supported by a recent SATCON intensity estimate of 42 kt. The ASCAT data did show that the area of tropical-storm-force winds has increased in size over the eastern semicircle and now extends outward up to about 80 n mi in that portion of the storm.

Wanda is moving northward or 010/8 kt. The cyclone should continue moving northward ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough during the next 24-36 hours. After that time however, the trough is expected to weaken and lift northward causing Wanda to slow down and turn eastward. After 48 hours, the track guidance has continued its southward shift when a narrow ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of the system. The NHC track forecast is again shifted southward in the 60 to 96 h time period. By late in the period, Wanda is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of yet another mid-latitude trough. There is a bit more confidence in the latest track prediction as the dynamical model guidance has come into a bit better agreement, however additional southwestward or westward adjustments during the middle portion of the forecast period could be required.

Little overall change in strength is anticipated over the next several days. As Wanda moves northward during the next day or so, it will be moving over slightly cooler waters which could cause the cyclone to struggle to produce deep convection. After day 2, there are indications of increasing shear, but a nearby baroclinic zone could help the system maintain its intensity. Later in the period, shear and decreasing mid-level relative humidity are likely to cause Wanda to become post-tropical, and by day 5 the guidance indicates Wanda will merge with a frontal boundary and become extratropical.

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