FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Wanda
LOCATED
705 MI W OF THE AZORES
WINDS
50 MPH
PRESSURE
992 MB
MOVING
NNE AT 8 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 900 AM GMT Wed Nov 03 2021
Wanda maintaining its intensity.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 40.0 West. Wanda is moving toward the north northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward to north northeastward motion should continue through early Thursday. An eastward motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated by late Thursday, followed by a faster southeastward motion by early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km), primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 40.0 West. Wanda is moving toward the north northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward to north northeastward motion should continue through early Thursday. An eastward motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated by late Thursday, followed by a faster southeastward motion by early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km), primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

Wanda has changed little in organization since yesterday evening. Bands of moderately deep convection continue around the storm center, but upper-level outflow is not as well-defined as in a typical tropical cyclone. The advisory intensity estimate remains at 45 kt, in agreement with a subjective Dvorak satellite estimate from SAB. This is also in general agreement with earlier scatterometer observations. The cyclone remains fairly small, with most of the stronger winds occurring over its eastern semicircle.

The storm continues moving a little east of north, or near 015/7 kt. Wanda should move on the eastern side of a mid-latitude trough for the next day or so. After that time, the trough is likely to weaken and this should result in the system slowing down and turning eastward. In 2 to 3 days, a narrow mid-tropospheric ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of Wanda which should cause the cyclone to move southeastward. In 4 to 5 days, the cyclone is expected to accelerate northeastward ahead of another mid-latitude trough. The official forecast track is similar to the previous one except a little more to the northeast in 36-60 hours. This follows the latest simple and corrected model consensus solutions, and is also close to the average of the latest ECMWF and GFS model tracks.

The system has maintained its intensity in spite of being over sea surface temperatures of only about 23 deg C. Wanda will pass over even cooler waters while it moves farther northward during the next 24 hours or so, which may make it difficult for the system to produce much deep convection. However, the storm has been resilient to seemingly hostile conditions so far, and the official forecast calls for Wanda to maintain its intensity for much of the forecast period. This is similar to the latest intensity model consensus guidance. By 96 hours, however, dry air and shear are likely to result in Wanda losing organized convection and becoming a post-tropical cyclone. In 5 days, if not sooner, Wanda is likely to merge with a frontal zone, and return to its former extratropical status.

Wanda has changed little in organization since yesterday evening. Bands of moderately deep convection continue around the storm center, but upper-level outflow is not as well-defined as in a typical tropical cyclone. The advisory intensity estimate remains at 45 kt, in agreement with a subjective Dvorak satellite estimate from SAB. This is also in general agreement with earlier scatterometer observations. The cyclone remains fairly small, with most of the stronger winds occurring over its eastern semicircle.

The storm continues moving a little east of north, or near 015/7 kt. Wanda should move on the eastern side of a mid-latitude trough for the next day or so. After that time, the trough is likely to weaken and this should result in the system slowing down and turning eastward. In 2 to 3 days, a narrow mid-tropospheric ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of Wanda which should cause the cyclone to move southeastward. In 4 to 5 days, the cyclone is expected to accelerate northeastward ahead of another mid-latitude trough. The official forecast track is similar to the previous one except a little more to the northeast in 36-60 hours. This follows the latest simple and corrected model consensus solutions, and is also close to the average of the latest ECMWF and GFS model tracks.

The system has maintained its intensity in spite of being over sea surface temperatures of only about 23 deg C. Wanda will pass over even cooler waters while it moves farther northward during the next 24 hours or so, which may make it difficult for the system to produce much deep convection. However, the storm has been resilient to seemingly hostile conditions so far, and the official forecast calls for Wanda to maintain its intensity for much of the forecast period. This is similar to the latest intensity model consensus guidance. By 96 hours, however, dry air and shear are likely to result in Wanda losing organized convection and becoming a post-tropical cyclone. In 5 days, if not sooner, Wanda is likely to merge with a frontal zone, and return to its former extratropical status.

Partners of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network include:  WDNA (Miami), WFIT (Melbourne), WMFE (Orlando), WFSU (Tallahassee), WGCU (Fort Myers), WJCT (Jacksonville), WKGC (Panama City), WLRN (Miami), WMNF (Tampa-Sarasota), WQCS (Fort Pierce), WUFT (Gainesville-Ocala), WUSF (Tampa), WUWF (Pensacola) and Florida Public Media.

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

(352) 392-5551

Loading...
linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram